A 'Quiet' Hurricane Season Can Still Be Deadly. History Proves It.

The official arrival of El Niño has dominated the weather headlines over the last several days. One of the key impacts of the onset of this climate phase is the prediction that the Atlantic basin will see a quieter hurricane season. This is because El Niño supports the development of disruptive wind shear across the Atlantic, putting a lid on tropical weather in the process. 

However, that does not mean that there are not any potential dangers lurking. Even the strongest El Niño years have seen significant tropical landfalls along the U.S. coastline. Read on for the details.

Connection Between El Niño and Atlantic Hurricane Season

El Niño years have averaged approximately 10 named storms and five hurricanes since the beginning of the satellite era in the 1960s. These numbers are well under the historical average. For comparison, La Niña years average about 15 named storms and eight hurricanes. When the equatorial Pacific is in a neutral phase, the Atlantic produces an average of 13 named storms, seven of which go on to become hurricanes.

It is important to remember that while the presence of El Niño is likely to lower the overall storm volume, it will not shut down the season entirely. In fact, the U.S. is still expected to see three to five direct strikes from tropical storms or hurricanes by the time that the Atlantic season comes to an end on November 30.

The old cliche "all it takes is one storm" could very well hold this year. History has taught us that the season can pose deadly hazards even when numbers come in below the historical average.

The most impactful  El Niño Atlantic seasons in the satellite era were in 1972, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2002, and 2015. All of these years ushered in tropical storm or hurricane landfalls in the U.S. that triggered substantial damage.

The Storms That Hit Anyway: Notable U.S. Landfalls During El Niño Years