All Eyes on the Gulf as Atlantic Hurricane Season Kicks Off

As expected, the Atlantic hurricane season is off to a calm start. However, forecasters are still keeping a close eye on several zones of potential development in the days ahead. What areas are most likely to spring to life first? Read on for all the details, as well as an update on what is happening in the Eastern Pacific as the first named storm forms.

Gulf Could be First Area of Tropical Development in the Atlantic

The Atlantic hurricane season formally started on Monday, June 1. Unlike the Eastern Pacific, which has already seen its first named feature, the Atlantic basin has been quiet thus far. While conditions in the Atlantic are forecast to remain less favorable to development in the near term when compared to the Pacific, any feature that does ignite could spell trouble for the U.S. due to the proximity of the hot zones to land.

High amounts of wind shear circulating in the Atlantic will continue to mitigate the chance of widespread tropical weather concerns in the near future. These disruptive breezes tend to break apart developing systems before they can take root and intensify.

The exception to the lack of action will be in the Gulf near the north-central Gulf Coast. Forecasters are watching this zone in the coming days. A weak area of low pressure will be anchored within a plume of moisture coming up from the Gulf and into the Southeast.

This potential feature is a double-edged sword. While its proximity to the central Gulf Coast will mitigate how much time it has to organize and intensify, it is close enough to land to deliver meaningful impacts.

The weather maker's greatest impacts are forecast to come in the form of heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms, regardless of how strong it becomes. The swath of land from southeastern Louisiana to the east into the western edge of the Florida Panhandle should expect to see these effects late Friday and into Saturday.

The feature will bring along the threat of localized urban flooding and the chance of waterspouts. New Orleans will be one of the cities that should be on guard for flooding issues.

It is not unusual to see early-season tropical activity in the Gulf. Other hotbeds of action at this point in the season typically include the western Caribbean and the southwestern corner of the Atlantic, as this is where environmental factors are the most supportive.

In addition to these hot zones, tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific near southern Mexico and Central America could also send an abundance of moisture into the Gulf or the Caribbean. This moisture could serve as the seeds for future tropical development in the Atlantic basin.

The long-range forecast is suggesting that the widespread area of thunderstorm activity currently projected for the Gulf and Caribbean will begin to move away from this favorable zone by the middle of June. This means that the best chance of a named June storm will be in the early part of the month.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is also watching the possibility of an area of low pressure developing in the western Caribbean or the Gulf next week. This system could creep northward and into the U.S., bringing a chance of relief from the growing drought in the eastern part of the country after the middle of the month.