Arizona Spends More Time in NHC Cones Than Florida

Nobody would have seen this coming when the hurricane season kicked off this year. With the bulk of both the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic hurricane seasons in the rearview mirror, the state of Arizona has spent more time within the tropical forecast cone than Florida. Here is a closer look at this interesting development during this unusual tropical weather season.

Arizona Has Spent More Time in the NHC Cones than Florida

A recent weather analysis is painting an abnormal picture of what has been happening in the tropics this year. The data looked at the 520 tropical cyclone forecast cones issued this year by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) across the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific through Tuesday afternoon.

While Florida, Texas, and the Gulf Coast typically spend the most time within these cones during any given year, Arizona is the region taking the lead this season. In fact, there has only been one storm to touch Florida this year. That happened recently when the cone that went on to house Tropical Storm Imelda skirted past the Sunshine State. With only three forecast cone update cycles from Imelda, Florida has seen an unusually low amount of NHC cone action so far. Imelda remained out to sea, eventually turning away from the U.S. coastline and roaring across Bermuda.

In contrast, Arizona has been within the NHC extended forecast cones six times already this season. The six cone updates came from two different storms that formed in the Pacific basin. Hurricane Lorena from the early part of September ended up delivering a surge of moisture to the Grand Canyon State. The current Hurricane Priscilla is expected to track from off the coast of Mexico and to the northeast, putting Arizona back in the line of impact for a storm's remains.

While Arizona is never going to see a direct strike from a tropical weather event, the state is uniquely positioned to catch some of the remaining moisture after a storm fizzles out. In the case of Lorena, Arizona was put in the cone as forecasters predicted that what was left of the hurricane could impact the Southwest after it dissipated in the cooler waters of the Pacific.

The Gulf Coast has been particularly quiet this season. Neither Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, nor Texas has been placed in any NHC cone. This has been a surprise to forecasters who predicted that the record warm waters of the Gulf would make it a hotbed of tropical activity over the last few months.

Although Florida has been spared the stress of a tropical strike thus far this year, the Southeast has not been as lucky. North Carolina and South Carolina have seen 12 cone placements already. The only storm to actually come ashore in the U.S. was Tropical Storm Chantal, an event that made landfall in South Carolina on July 6.