Atlantic Basin Remains Quiet but More Activity Expected Soon
Christy Bowen
2 hours agoJust as forecasters have been predicting for months, the Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start thanks to the influence of a strengthening El Niño phase. Will it remain quiet all season, or is the worst yet to come? Read on for the latest long-range forecast.
Atlantic Basin Remains Asleep
It has been a tale of two basins this year in the tropics. Although the Atlantic Ocean has been uncharacteristically calm thus far, activity has already ramped up in the Pacific basin.
The Pacific basin has seen plenty of action this year, with four named storms already on the record books. Meanwhile, the emergence of El Niño is contributing to the calm conditions in the Atlantic. This is not unusual, as El Niño years have frequently resulted in reduced activity in the Atlantic.
Tropical weather events need a combination of factors to drive storm formation and spread. The first critical ingredient is warm ocean waters. Budding tropical features also need to find areas with little to no wind shear in order to grow and intensify. Strong wind shear works to disrupt the center of the storm, breaking it apart and putting a lid on development. Conversely, weaker wind shear provides a fertile breeding ground for storms to organize if the other ingredients are in place.
The Atlantic basin has seen high amounts of wind shear in recent weeks, mitigating the odds of tropical weather. In addition, frequent intrusions of dry Saharan air coming off the coast of Africa and into the Atlantic have further reduced the chances of tropical weather development.
It should be noted that this is the time of the year when the Atlantic basin tends to experience a lull in tropical activity. For instance, the second named storm of the season in this corner of the globe forms by July 17 on average.