Atlantic Tropics Showing Signs of Life as Hurricane Season Ramps Up

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is about a month away. While it has been an unusually quiet season thus far, forecasters are now monitoring three separate areas of interest for potential tropical weather formation in this part of the world's oceans. Read on for what the long-range forecast is suggesting about tropical weather development in the coming week.

Three Areas of Interest in the Tropical Atlantic

Staff at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have enjoyed a calm season in the Atlantic this year, thanks to the impact of El Niño. However, that could change in the days ahead as the tropics start to come alive.

The first area of interest near the Lesser Antilles has been assigned a low risk of development between August 11 and 13. A second tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa is also tracking to the west through the Atlantic. The NHC said that there is a high chance of development in this region between August 12 and 14.

A third area of concern is presenting itself to the northeast of Bermuda. The NHC has assigned this zone a low risk of future development in the short term.

The two areas of interest in the central Atlantic are traversing what is known as the Main Development Region (MDR), an area in the basin that is typically a hotbed of tropical development. The storms that pop up in the MDR generally increase in volume and intensity during the month of August.

The first tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles will encounter a variety of inhibiting factors as it moves to the west.  Dry and dusty Saharan air pairing with increasing amounts of wind shear are forecast to limit the wave as it nears the Caribbean. However, the track of this initial wave could make it more likely that the second wave is able to organize and intensify. This is because the first wave is expected to displace the dry and dusty air, leaving more favorable conditions for development when the second wave reaches this part of the basin.

The second wave will have the greatest chance of development if it moves farther north as it tracks into the Lesser Antilles. This northward track would keep it away from the disruptive wind shear, allowing it to strengthen as it moves over the warm ocean waters.

Where each of these waves end up will determine how much they are able to intensify. There have only been two named storms to roam the Atlantic this season. The next names up for the 2026 season are Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard.

The chances of life in the tropics are limited as El Niño continues to become more powerful. A strengthening El Niño is linked to increasing amounts of disruptive wind shear, putting a lid on development in the tropical Atlantic.

That said, forecasters caution that there is still the possibility of tropical weather, especially this time of the year, as waves move through the MDR with greater frequency.