Bennu Asteroid Could Strike Earth With Force of 22 Atomic Bombs

What does September 24, 2182 mean to you? To NASA, it is a date that has been circled on the calendar for years as a date that could live in infamy. Read on for the details.

Scientists Monitor Asteroid Potentially Hurtling Toward Earth

An asteroid by the name of Bennu is hurtling toward Earth with the small possibility that it could cause a potential catastrophe in 156 years. While the odds are astronomically low that the asteroid will make a direct impact, Bennu still represents the most statistically significant threat that scientists can name.

According to NASA's Deep Space Network and associated computer models, Bennu's total impact probability through 2300 is just 1 in 1,750 (about 0.057%). September 24, 2182, has been determined to be the most probable date for a possible impact, coming in at 1 in 2,700 (roughly 0/037%). While this is a notably small chance, it is still not zero.

Bennu is predicted to make a close flyby of Earth on September 25, 2135. At this time, there is a tiny chance that the asteroid will pass through what is known as a "gravitational keyhole." This slice of space could set Bennu on a path that would put it on a collision course with Earth.

These keyholes measure less than 20 kilometers wide, with some coming in even smaller. This means that it is highly unlikely that the asteroid would slip into this keyhole, which would send it hurtling toward Earth. And if the unthinkable should happen, scientists would still have about 50 years of lead time to act on the threat.

The bottom line is that humanity will know by 2135 if action needs to be taken. Every year that Bennu does not pass through a keyhole increases the odds that it will never make contact with Earth

But what if it did? Researchers at the IBS Center for Climate Physics at Pusan National University ran simulations that showed that an impact would send up to 400 million tons of dust into the stratosphere, severely impacting climate, food supplies, global photosynthesis, and a breakdown of the ozone levels. So for now, scientists will continue to keep a close eye on the trajectory of the asteroid that could strike Earth with the force of 22 atomic bombs.