Could 2026 Be a Quiet Hurricane Season?

The official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is here. What does the season have in store? Read on for all of the details of what the experts are predicting.

NOAA Predicts Fewer Hurricanes Than Normal in 2026

The Atlantic hurricane season officially kicks off on Monday, June 1, and runs through November 30. Forecasters with the National Weather Service (NWS) out of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their predictions for the season last week, signaling that it could be a quiet year in this part of the world's oceans.

The NOAA outlook is projecting a 35% of a near-normal season, a 10% chance that activity comes in above the norm, and a 55% chance of experiencing a below-normal season. This prediction equates to a forecast of 8 to 14 named storms. Of that number, 3 to 6 are forecast to intensify into hurricanes, defined as a tropical weather event with winds of 74 mph or greater.

NOAA is also predicting that 1 to 3 major hurricanes will form this season. A major hurricane is defined as a Category 3 storm or higher. The agency said that it has a 70% confidence in its forecast ranges. For context, an average season typically generates 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted, “With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings. Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”

While several private forecasting agencies and researchers have already released their predictions for the upcoming season, the NOAA update marks the first time that federal forecasters have released what they believe will happen in the Atlantic in the months ahead.

The NOAA outlook is largely in line with the previous forecasts of a quieter-than-usual season in 2026. For example, the Colorado State University forecasting center previously predicted that the Atlantic basin would produce just six hurricanes this year. Only two of these are expected to intensify into a Category 3 or higher event, according to this renowned forecasting agency.

The outlook was released on Thursday during a news conference at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida. The event featured several speakers detailing what the long-range climate patterns are signaling for the months ahead.