Drought Relief or Flood Threat? What Hurricane Rachel Means for the Southwest

All eyes are on Hurricane Rachel as it makes a turn back toward Mexico. Not only will this tropical weather event impact our neighbors to the south, but it will also have residual effects on parts of the U.S. Read on for all of the details of Rachel's projected path and likely impacts.

Hurricane Rachel Update

As of the Tuesday afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Rachel was a Category 1 storm packing maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. The storm is spinning roughly 649 miles west-southwest of the southern edge of Baja California Sur, Mexico. While Rachel is currently moving to the west, it is forecast to take a turn back to Mexico later this week.

A southward dip in the jet stream is predicted to send Rachel toward northwestern Mexico, spreading its moisture as far as the southwestern corner of the U.S. Not only will this movement bring down the toasty temperatures that have been in place over much of the western U.S., but it will direct heavy rain into the drought-stricken states of Arizona and Utah by early next week.

Although much of the Southwest could use the precipitation, this is the same general part of the country that experienced flash flooding at the end of September as Polo's remnants surged up from Mexico. Rachel is not expected to be as powerful as Polo; however, forecasters are warning this latest storm will still bring significant amounts of moisture.

In addition to the threat of flooding across parts of Arizona and Utah, the steady stream of precipitation will also support the development of mudslides across the rocky terrain. Areas that are still drying out from Polo's impacts will be the most vulnerable. Polo combined with the typical rain from the North American monsoon season to dump two to seven times the historical average of moisture for September across many communities in the Desert Southwest.