El Niño Is Coming. The WMO Says It Could Be One of the Strongest on Record.

One of the world's leading meteorological agencies issued a stark warning this week about the potential adverse effects of the incoming El Niño. Read on for the details and what it may mean for global weather patterns in the coming months.

WMO Sounds the Alarm on a Potentially Powerful El Niño

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a climate advisory, detailing that the likely arrival of a powerful El Niño climate phase will send temperatures soaring and increase the threat of drought, heavy rain, and frequent heat waves across the world. According to United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres, "El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty." Guterres said that "El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther and cross borders with devastating speed."

The latest update from WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo is to start preparing now. Saulo said,  "We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heat waves both on land and in the ocean."

The WMO predictions are in line with previous long-range forecasts by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) out of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The CPC predicted that there is a one-third chance that El Niño will develop into what is known as a Super El Niño by the fall. Speaking to the rarity of a Super El Niño, there have only been five of these extreme events since 1950. The most recent Super El Niño was in 2015-2016.

The latest computer forecast models suggest that the upcoming El Niño could become one of the most pronounced on record. Ocean surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific could reach more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above the historical average in the next few months.

While some leading meteorological agencies are sounding the alarm bells about the growing concern of a potent El Niño, other experts are taking a more measured approach. This is because the powerful westerly wind bursts that warmed up the waters in the equatorial Pacific could also trigger increased evaporation, putting a lid on how powerful El Niño will become.