Erick Could Become Major Hurricane Prior to Landfall in Mexico

Hurricane Erick is expected to reach a Category 3 status prior to making landfall in southern Mexico on Friday. Here is the latest on this rapidly strengthening tropical weather event.

Hurricane Erick Picking Up Steam as it Barrels Toward Mexico

Although the Atlantic has been particularly quiet to start the 2025 season, it has been a different situation in the Eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm Erick came to life earlier in the week, quickly becoming a hurricane about a day later. As of the Wednesday afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Erick is a Category 2 hurricane located off the coast of southwestern Mexico.

The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 100 mph as it moves to the northwest at speeds of 9 mph. Hurricane Erick is forecast to usher in damaging winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall as it is likely to become the first known major hurricane in this part of the basin to make landfall in Mexico before the beginning of July.

Erick is now the second hurricane to form this season in the Eastern Pacific. This puts the season nearly four weeks ahead of its usual pace. For comparison, the fifth storm of the season generally forms by July 23 in the Eastern Pacific.

What to Expect with Erick and When

Hurricane warnings are now in effect for portions of Mexico's Guerrero and Oaxaca states. The warning area includes the popular tourist destination of Acapulco. In addition to the posted hurricane warning, hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings also stretch to the west and the east of the warning zone.

Erick's anticipated path will send torrential rain and high winds across Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero states late Wednesday and into early Thursday. The peak impacts of this part of Mexico will happen late in the day on Thursday.

The storm has been able to pick up speed as a result of the warm waters circulating in this part of the basin. Upper-level winds and a surge of moisture will allow Erick to continue to intensify as it moves closer to the coast. The NHC is predicting that Erick will reach the major hurricane status of a Category 3 or higher.

The worst of the storm surge and high winds are predicted to hit to the east of where the eye of the storm makes landfall. The latest models indicate that these impacts will happen to the east of Acalpuclo. However, the populated area will also be under the gun for damaging winds, especially in the higher terrains.

Rainfall of 8 to 16 inches is on tap for this part of Mexico. Localized pockets of up to 20 inches are possible across Oaxaca and Guerrreor states. Rainfall of this magnitude will raise the risk of flash flooding and mudslides. Residents and tourists in the potential impact zone will want to keep abreast of the situation as Erick makes its move closer to land.

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