Fall 2025 Forecast: Above-Normal Heat and Elevated Wildfire Threat

As summer’s intense heat begins to fade, the first forecast for fall 2025 suggests the cooler season may be slow to arrive. Widespread above-normal temperatures are expected to persist across most of the country into October, with the West facing an early and heightened wildfire threat.

In the East, warm and humid conditions are forecast to linger well into autumn, delaying the crisp fall weather many anticipate. Meanwhile, in the West, strong wind events and lightning from dry thunderstorms could spark major fires in California, the Rockies, and the Northwest as early as September.

Wildfire smoke will likely continue to affect large portions of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, carried by prevailing winds from ongoing fires in the western U.S. and Canada. Hazy skies may become a regular feature into mid-fall for cities from Minneapolis to Chicago.

The flood threat remains elevated as tropical storms and hurricanes bring heavy rainfall to vulnerable areas, especially in the Appalachians, Ohio Valley, and central Gulf Coast.