First Major Hurricane Outlook of the Season is Here - What Should You Expect?

The first major hurricane season outlook of the new season is here. The news is good for those hoping for a docile season, thanks in part to the predicted emergence of El Niño. Here is a first peek at what you can expect in the months to come in the Atlantic basin, as well as why the experts do not believe it is setting up to be a blockbuster season.

First Official Hurricane Predictions Signal Weak Season

There is less than two months until the official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season kicks off on June 1. In the coming weeks, you can expect several forecasting agencies to release their predictions about how the tropical weather season will unfold in this corner of the world's oceans.

The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology project team is offering its first look at the upcoming hurricane season. The well-respected forecasting team is predicting that a strong El Niño presence will combine with lukewarm ocean water temperatures to put a lid on the explosiveness in the tropics.

CSU is forecasting 13 total storms in the Atlantic basin in 2026. Six of these storms are expected to go on to become hurricanes. Of these, two will hit the status of a major hurricane or higher, defined as at least Category 3.

The outlook released on Thursday comes in at slightly below the 30-year average for the number of storms and hurricanes.  For context, the average is 14 total storms and seven hurricanes. The 2025 season featured 13 total storms and five hurricanes. What made this season so unusual was that four of the five hurricanes went on to become major hurricanes.