First Major Hurricane Season Outlook Points to Fewer Storms But Bigger Risks

The experts are beginning to weigh in on what the U.S. should expect out of the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. How many named storms are expected this year, and what factors will influence the amount and intensity of this activity? Read on for all of the details.

Experts Predict Normal to Slightly Below Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

The expectation of a developing El Niño will drive how the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season unfolds. This is good news for those hoping for a breather this year, as El Niño years typically produce a limited amount of tropical activity.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season ended up close to the norm as measured by the number of named storms. However, the season was a bit of an anomaly in that there were three Category 5 monsters, one shy of the record of four at this level. In addition, the bulk of the activity fired up after the climatological peak of the season on September 10.

The official start of the Atlantic tropical weather season is Monday, June 1. While El Niño is still emerging, it could exert a strong influence on the back half of the season.

El Niño is the guiding phase when ocean temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean warm to at least 0.9 of a degree Fahrenheit above the historical averages. Warmer waters have a greater impact on the prevalence of tropical activity throughout the world.

In a typical El Niño year, stronger upper-level winds throughout the Atlantic basin tend to put a lid on explosive tropical weather development. This disruptive wind shear is more likely to break up features before they become too intense. As such, forecasters believe that the emergence of El Niño by the second half of the season could mean an earlier end to the activity when compared to normal.