Forecasters Monitoring Southeast Coast for Potential Tropical Weather

Tropical Storm Andrea spun up and fizzled out quickly this week, but forecasters are warning that more tropical weather could form heading into the month of July. Here is what forecasters are monitoring in the Atlantic basin as the tropics begin to show signs of more activity.

Tropical Weather a Possibility Near the Southeastern Coastline

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is eyeing the southeastern coast of the U.S. for potential tropical development around the Fourth of July holiday weekend. It has been a quiet start to the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The first tropical storm of the year formed this week, lasting less than 24 hours before dissipating without making any contact with land.

However, the latest long-range forecast models indicate that trouble could be brewing just in time for the much-anticipated holiday weekend. The next named feature in the Atlantic will be called Barry.

Thunderstorms are forecast to precede any formal tropical development near the Southeast coastline. This corner of the country will see the storm action fire up in the coming days after the current heat wave breaks down. The upcoming weather pattern will feature higher chances of rain showers and thunderstorms, lingering well into next week.

Although the bulk of the Southeast has seen plenty of moisture in recent weeks, some parts of Florida could use the influx of rain. According to the Thursday report out of the U.S. Drought Monitor, various areas of the Sunshine State are currently experiencing dry or drought conditions. The peninsula is forecast to pick up significant precipitation over the next few days, helping to alleviate these concerns.

Forecasters are monitoring a likely dip in the jet stream that could persist near the Gulf or into the southwestern corner of the Atlantic Ocean. These summertime plunges in the jet stream are known to support the development of tropical weather. This is part of the basin that is historically the most likely to see tropical features come to life during the early part of the season.

The arrival of a cold front later next week could trigger the development of tropical weather in the eastern portion of the Gulf or off the coastline of the Southeast. The combination of the expected cold front and the dip in the jet stream has put the NHC on alert for the possibility of a tropical feature taking shape between the dates of July 4 and July 7.

In addition to the two atmospheric elements, ocean water temperatures in the Gulf are also trending above average for this time of the year. These warm temperatures combined with low amounts of disruptive wind shear will work together to support tropical weather should everything else line up as expected.

The presence of tropical moisture could send over an inch of rain across Florida during the first week of July. Motorists could encounter travel difficulties over the holiday weekend if the rain is heavy enough.

Beachgoers will also want to be aware of the chance of waterspouts near the coast. The expected rainfall will also create havoc for those hoping to enjoy the beach over the holiday. Should a tropical feature develop, vacationers will also want to monitor the threat of high winds, tidal flooding, and beach erosion.

We will continue to monitor these potential impacts to Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast as the holiday approaches.

Looking at the Rest of the Tropics

The rest of the tropics remain calm heading into the beginning of July. The Eastern Pacific was the first basin to come alive this season, with five named storms already in the rearview mirror. Two of these storms went on to become hurricanes, with one of them evolving into a major hurricane that made landfall in southern Mexico.

Another tropical rainstorm could dump locally heavy rain across the coast of southern Mexico this weekend. However, the center of the storm is still expected to remain offshore, limiting its overall impacts. The next name up for the Eastern Pacific is Flossie.

The Caribbean is not expected to see any tropical weather concerns through the first two weeks of July. Dry and dusty air from the Sahara continues to push off the coast of Africa and inhibit development in this part of the world's oceans. These masses of dust are predicted to continue to mitigate the odds of tropical weather moving across the Atlantic.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 with an end date of November 30. The dates of the Eastern Pacific season run from May 15 to November 30.

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