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From One Extreme to Another: A New Heat Dome Is Targeting the Western U.S.

Christy Bowen

2 hours ago
The Weather Prediction Center's Day 2 national forecast map showing the transition of the heat and storm pattern, with Critical Fire Weather conditions over Colorado and the central Rockies while severe thunderstorm threats continue across the northern Plains — the weather pattern preceding the western heat dome expansion forecast for next week.
The WPC's forecast shows Critical Fire Weather over Colorado and the Rockies — a preview of the dangerous heat dome building across the western U.S. in the week ahead. (NOAA/WPC/SPC/NHC)

While the eastern U.S. is the place sizzling this week, it will be the western part of the nation that is under the gun for rising temperatures next week. Here is a look at the upcoming heat pattern flip and what it means for wildfire danger in the West.

East to Cool Off While Temperatures Soar in the West

A dangerous heat wave continues to grip the East heading into the Fourth of July weekend. The extreme heat is forecast to persist well into the weekend before finally beginning to ease in the early part of next week, bringing temperatures back to more seasonable levels for the first half of July.

The massive heat dome that set up shop over the central U.S. earlier this week is expanding to the east as the holiday approaches. The latest forecast models suggest that the large zone of high pressure will begin to shrink over the southeastern corner of the U.S. this week, resulting in a breakdown of the heat dome to the north.

Climate Central forecast map showing average high temperatures across the U.S. from July 2–5, 2026, with deep red and maroon shading blanketing nearly the entire central and eastern U.S. at 90–110°F, confirming the heat dome's full grip on the nation heading into the Fourth of July holiday weekend before the pattern begins shifting westward.
Average highs from July 2–5 show dangerous heat dominating the central and eastern U.S., with the red zone extending from the Rockies to the Atlantic coast heading into the holiday weekend. (Climate Central/NOAA GFS)

The easing of the heat dome this week will naturally translate to an uptick in thunderstorm activity across the Midwest and the Northeast over the next several days. The prevalence of storms will increase further by the beginning of the week in the eastern half of the country. Although these storms will not deliver immense moisture, any bit of rain will help after the long dry period.

Just as the temperatures are starting to come down in the central and eastern states, the mercury will begin to inch up in the western third of the country. Forecasters are predicting that a new heat dome will take shape in an area between the Pacific coastline and the Rockies.

A northward bulge in the jet stream over the West will bring up warmer air from the south, fueling the formation of this latest heat dome. How warm will it get? The models are signaling that temperatures will hit 10 to 20 degrees over the historical average for the second week of July for much of the western U.S.

The Southwest will bear the brunt of the heat with this weather event. Cities such as Las Vegas, Palm Springs, and Phoenix are expected to see the highest temperatures of the season thus far, even toastier than the record-breaking spring heat wave a few months ago.

Tags

heat eases in the eastern u.s. beginning this weekendheat dome building out westwildfires in the west updatenorth american monsoon season arrival

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