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Gulf Coast Braces for Rough Weekend of Weather Packed with Rain and High Winds

Christy Bowen

2 hours ago
GOES-19 satellite imagery shows a broad storm system over the Gulf of Mexico funneling tropical moisture toward the central Gulf Coast, raising concerns for heavy rain, gusty winds, rough surf, and coastal flooding.
A slow-moving disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico is spreading tropical moisture into Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle, bringing a wet and windy weekend to the region. (NOAA/NESDIS)

You may want to check the hourly forecast if you are headed outside for plans this weekend along the Gulf Coast. A slow-moving disturbance is set to deliver a wide array of severe impacts, ranging from heavy rain to high winds to rough surf conditions. Here is what you need to know about what to expect over the next few days in this part of the U.S.

Potent Storm System Socking in the Gulf Coast with Rain Through the Weekend

A developing storm system in the Gulf is going to bring torrential downpours and other severe impacts along a swath of land from Louisiana to the east into the Florida Panhandle. The inclement conditions are expected to last through Sunday, putting outdoor plans this weekend in flux.

While the weather maker will funnel tropical moisture across the Gulf Coast, forecasters are clear to point out that this system will not evolve into a tropical depression or storm. Despite plenty of warm water in this part of the basin, there is also a good amount of east-northeast wind shear that will work to break up any developing tropical features.

Even in the absence of formal tropical development, the system will still be potent enough to cause significant disruptions to the Gulf Coast. Increasing winds will serve to send the deep tropical moisture to the north and onshore. Louisiana and southern Mississippi will begin to see the impacts on Friday and Saturday.

The good news is that the chance of widespread flooding will be low thanks to the scattered nature of the storms. That said, forecasters are warning that periods of heavy rain could spring up within the individual storm cells. This could result in street flooding beginning Friday and persisting into the early part of next week.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center forecast shows projected rainfall totals through Monday morning, with the heaviest precipitation expected from the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley and parts of the Midwest.
Forecast rainfall totals through early next week show several inches of rain possible from Oklahoma and Arkansas into the Mississippi Valley, increasing the risk of localized flooding. (NOAA/WPC)

The latest forecast models are predicting that rainfall totals of over 2 inches per hour are possible at times. Areas that see repeated rounds of storms will inherently see the greatest threat of flooding.  

Some of the largest urban areas in the Gulf Coast region will be at risk of heavy rain that results in flooding. For example, New Orleans will see the moisture machine pick up later in the day on Friday. The forecast is calling for a high of about 84 degrees, overnight lows that bottom out in the upper 70s, and winds out of the east-southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Widespread storms throughout the day and night on Saturday in New Orleans will add to the precipitation totals. Rain showers in the morning on Sunday will also evolve into thunderstorms by the latter part of the day. In short, it is going to be a soaker of a weekend for the Big Easy.


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