Gulf Most Likely Zone of Tropical Activity by the End of September

All signs are pointing to the Gulf as being the most likely area of tropical development in the days ahead. Why are forecasters so concerned about the possibility of a tropical weather maker springing to life in this part of the basin? Read on for all of the details.

Gulf Could Be a Hotbed of Tropical Activity Heading Into the Second Half of September

The Gulf is primed for tropical weather development by the end of September, translating to potential impacts to the U.S. Hurricane experts are pointing to a number of factors that could lay the groundwork for the next named storm to form in this part of the Atlantic basin.

The most pressing concern is the record-warm ocean water temperatures currently circulating throughout much of the Gulf. These exceptionally warm waters stretch to the western Caribbean, making these two areas the most likely areas of development.

Forecasters are also warning that the toasty waters could mean that any storm that does form will have a higher risk of going through the process of rapid intensification. Storms that strengthen so quickly are inherently more dangerous if the intensification happens in the Gulf, as there is less time for those in the path to prepare for impact.

While there is still a good chance that a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa will develop into a named feature, these storms will take significantly longer to reach the U.S. coastline. As such, forecasters are most concerned about storms that form in the Gulf, which give little lead time for those in the potential path.