Gulf Tropical Threat Could Bring Significant Flooding to the Southeast

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a storm that is coming together in the southwestern Gulf. Could this system become the next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season? This is what you need to know.

Zone of Rain Showers and Thunderstorms Could Develop Into Next Named Storm

Forecasters have identified a zone in the Gulf that has a high chance of developing into a major tropical weather maker. Even in the absence of formal development, the system is forecast to come ashore along the central Gulf Coast by this weekend. The moisture associated with this disturbance will deliver heavy rain and an elevated threat of flooding across much of the Southeast.

The southeastern U.S. has already been dealing with heavy rain, thanks to a stalled front that has been anchored over the region. Any tropical moisture will amplify this flooding threat.

The next name on the list for the Atlantic this year is Isaias.

The cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms is currently churning in the Bay of Campeche off the coast of Mexico. Water temperatures are hovering in the 80s, providing fuel for a storm to develop in the days ahead. Hurricane experts will also be watching wind shear in this zone.

The latest forecast models indicate that the feature will be strong enough to overcome the current levels of wind shear. At the very least, it is likely that a tropical rainstorm will come out of this area of concern. As of late Monday, there is only about a 15% chance that the system develops into a hurricane.

The steering winds over this part of the Gulf are expected to pair with a dip in the jet stream to send the disturbance to the north-northeast as the week progresses. This track would result in a landfall in the U.S. somewhere along the central Gulf Coast this weekend.

There is also an outside chance that the jet stream does not pick up the storm in time. This would result in the storm moving back toward Mexico. A landfall in Texas would be particularly abnormal, as a named storm has never come ashore in the Lone Star State in October, November, or December during an El Niño year.

Forecasters believe that the track and projected strength of this storm will become more precise once a center of circulation forms.