How Climate Change Is Shaping Tornado Patterns in the U.S.

Severe weather is becoming more common across the U.S., and one question keeps coming up: how is climate change affecting tornadoes? Tornadoes are still one of the most unpredictable weather events on Earth, but a growing body of research is starting to show how a warming climate may be reshaping when, where, and how often they form.

The science isn't simple. Climate change is changing some of the ingredients that fuel tornadoes — but not always in ways you'd expect. Here's what scientists are seeing in the data and what it could mean for U.S. families.

Tornado Counts Are Up, But Not Necessarily Stronger

The number of reported tornadoes in the U.S. has risen over the last several decades. The catch is that not all of that increase reflects an actual jump in tornado activity. Modern Doppler radar, widespread storm chasing, and the fact that almost everyone now has a phone capable of capturing video mean weather services are documenting many more weak tornadoes than they could have decades ago.

When researchers look at the most violent tornadoes — those rated EF3 or higher — they have not found a clear increase over time. Whether the most destructive twisters are becoming more common is still an open question, and one scientists are actively studying.