Hurricane Barbara Forecast to Skirt the Coast of Western Mexico

The first hurricane of the 2025 season is officially on the books. Hurricane Barbara came to life on Monday in the Eastern Pacific basin, marking a flurry of activity in recent days in this part of the world's oceans. Meanwhile, the Atlantic basin remains quiet. Here is a look at what is happening in the tropics as the new week kicks off.

Hurricane Barbara Forms in the Eastern Pacific

The Eastern Pacific is the hot spot for tropical development this week. Two named features are now churning through the basin, standing in contrast to the calm weather in the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Barbara formed on Sunday morning about 180 miles off the coastline of western Mexico. Barbara was distinguished as the second named feature of the Eastern Pacific season, coming on the heels of Alvin from the end of May.

The storm evolved into a hurricane a short time later, bringing rough surf to the western coastline of Mexico. Although Barbara is not predicted to make landfall, it will continue to move parallel to the coastline through Monday night. This track will result in dangerous waves and rip currents for the next few days. The bulk of the high winds will stay offshore, sparing this part of Mexico its worst impacts.

The latest forecast models indicate that Barbara will remain a Category 1 hurricane into late Monday. The feature will then begin to lose its wind intensity and devolve into a tropical rainstorm by the middle of the week.

As of the last update, Barbara was positioned about 155 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Barbara's maximum sustained winds are hovering around 75 mph as the hurricane moves to the northwest at a speed of 10 mph.

There are no current coastal warnings or watches in effect. However, significant rainfall could impact the immediate coastal regions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco states. Localized flooding is a possibility.

Latest on Tropical Storm Cosme

Barbara was not the only source of activity in the Eastern Pacific over the weekend. A new tropical depression came together late Sunday morning, quickly becoming Tropical Storm Cosme by the afternoon hours. As of Monday morning, Cosme was just sitting below hurricane strength with winds of 65 mph.

Cosme is located approximately 630 miles to the south-southwest of the tip of Baja California, according to the latest update from the NHC. The storm is moving at a speed of 9 mph to the west-northwest. Similar to Barbara, Cosme is not forecast to make a direct strike on land. Cosme is predicted to pick up speed on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A fourth tropical storm in a period of a few weeks could form by the middle of the month in this part of the Pacific. Hurricane experts have noted an area of potential development between June 13 and 15. Should this feature come to fruition, it will go by the name of Dalila. Forecasters are also warning that the current conditions could take it closer to Mexico than its predecessors.

The start to the Eastern Pacific has come along at a faster rate when compared to previous years. The 2024 season was historically slow to fire up with the first named storm not forming until July 4. The historical average date of the second named feature in the Eastern Pacific is June 24. The third storm typically comes together by July 6 while the fourth named feature forms by July 15 on average.

Atlantic Basin Remains Peaceful

It is a different situation in the Atlantic basin, where conditions remain quiet. This season officially started on June 1. A large amount of wind shear and Saharan dust is working together to suppress any chances of tropical development.

The average date for the first named storm to form in the Atlantic Ocean is June 20. However, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not see any signs that development will happen by this date this year.

It was not too long ago that hurricane experts had warned that conditions were looking favorable for tropical development by the middle of June. An area in the western part of the Caribbean had been highlighted for potential activity. Conditions have changed recently with just a small risk of tropical weather in this part of the Atlantic.

Instead, conditions will continue to remain more supportive for development in the Eastern Pacific. However, those with interests in the Atlantic basin should not get complacent. Forecasters are still predicting a busy season for this corner of the world.

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