Hurricane Isaias Could Bring Up to 10 Feet of Storm Surge to the Gulf Coast

Hurricane Isaias is beginning to impact the Gulf Coast as it gears up for a late Friday landfall. Here is the latest on this major hurricane that is set to bring severe impacts to much of the southeastern U.S. throughout the weekend.

Gulf Coast Braces for Category 3 Hurricane Landfall

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is predicting that Isaias will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane late Friday night somewhere near the border of Alabama and Florida. The storm's winds reached 120 mph on Friday morning, making it a major hurricane as it makes its approach.

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect in a zone from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the east to the Bay and Gulf County line in Florida. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the swath of coastline from the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana to Florida's Suwannee River.  

Likely impacts of this storm event include heavy rain, flooding, high winds, storm surge, tornadoes, and waterspouts. Isaias is racing to the north at a speed of 17 mph. The fast movement of this storm will send the strong winds farther inland when compared to storms that move at a slower speed. Fortunately, the swift movement will also help to limit rainfall totals.

The latest forecast models put the storm coming ashore just to the east of Pensacola, Florida. This track is good news for Mobile Bay, Alabama; however, significant storm surge is now expected in an area from Pensacola Bay through Destin, Florida. Surge is also expected in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, in the hours ahead. The northerly winds associated with Isaias will translate to minor to moderate surge toward New Orleans. The cities of New Orleans, Mobile, and Pensacola are all under the gun for urban flooding.

Diving into the numbers, storm surge of 6 to 10 feet is in the forecast for the Alabama Panhandle and into the western flank of the Florida Panhandle on Friday night through Saturday morning. A surge of 1 to 6 feet is likely for a more widespread area from southeastern Louisiana to the Big Bend region of Florida.

The high waves coming along with surge will amplify the overwash. These large swells will support the development of strong rip currents, especially along the north-central and northeastern coastline.