Long-Range Summer Forecast Calling for Unseasonbly Warm Temperatures

The long-range forecast is calling for temperatures to trend warmer than usual across much of the U.S. this summer. What else does the season have in store? Read on for what forecasters are predicting for the summer season.

Soaring Temperatures on Tap for the Months Ahead

All signs are pointing to a toasty summer ahead, complete with a higher-than-average number of tropical weather events and a heightened risk of wildfires. The start of the meteorological summer is June 1, running through the end of August.

While the official start of the season is still a few weeks away, some parts of the country have already seen temperatures hit the century mark. For instance, Phoenix notched its earliest 100-degree reading in seven years on April 10, serving as a harbinger of what is to come for the rest of the U.S.

You can expect temperatures to run well over the historical average during the three-month period between June and August. The most dramatic departure from normal is expected to be in the zone from the northern Rockies and over into the Plains states. Forecasters are warning that daily records could be challenged several times.

The Northeast and the Appalachians are also expected to see readings trend a bit above the average. The heat waves will come with an uptick in rain showers and thunderstorms, increasing humidity levels in the process. This will inevitably also boost the real feel readings in this region.

New York City is forecast to see the mercury top the 90-degree mark on 12 to 16 days this summer. It will be even warmer farther inland in Philadelphia, with temperatures forecast to hit this level on 25 to 30 days. Atlanta is expecting 90-degree or higher readings on 45 to 50 days.

It will be a similar situation to the west with forecasters predicting more 90-degree days when compared to 2024. For instance, Minneapolis is likely to hit this benchmark on 16 to 22 days. Denver is forecast to see a whopping 60 to 66 days that reach 90 degrees, while Los Angeles is likely to see heat of this magnitude on 56 to 62 days.

Forecasters are also warning that the nights will remain warmer in the coming months. This will be particularly true in large population centers that tend to have more difficulty cooling down after the sun goes down thanks to the urban heating effect. Lesser amounts of relief from the heat at night stress energy systems and complicate health issues for vulnerable populations.

Stormy Summer on the Horizon

Unfortunately, most breaks from the heat will come with a surge of moisture and the threat of severe weather. Water temperatures in the Gulf are hovering at unseasonably warm levels already. This warmth will support the development of more severe weather events throughout the season. The risk of thunderstorms will persist through June and July, carrying the added threat of derechos.

The long-range forecast models suggest that the highest risk of dangerous derechos will be throughout the northern Plains, the Ohio Valley, and down into the Tennessee Valley. The Ohio Valley recently experienced a deadly derecho, signaling that it could be a long season ahead.

Likewise, it is shaping up to be an active year for the North American monsoon season. This increase in heavy rain and storms generally ignites in the latter part of June across the interior portions of the West. The monsoon season is known to deliver much-needed moisture during a typically dry time. However, it can also raise the chances of flash flooding, mudslides, frequent lightning strikes, and other intense impacts.

It is important to note that June, July, and August combine for the highest number of fatalities blamed on lightning. This is why it is vital to seek shelter at the first rumble of thunder.

Worsening Drought Will Fuel Wildfire Season

The worsening drought conditions across the western U.S. will work to fuel the wildfire season. The zone from the interior West to the High Plains will be under the gun for growing drought concerns. The ongoing dryness will also negatively impact agricultural interests.

The threat of wildfires will also be amplified during the monsoon season. Although the moisture that comes along with the annual monsoon season, the lightning is known to spark fires. Meteorologists are warning that the chance of new wildfires will be the greatest at the beginning of the monsoon season. This is because this is the time when the vegetation is still the driest.

Tropical Weather Season Predictions

As the summer progresses, the threat of tropical storms and hurricanes will become more prevalent. A joint effort from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 predicts that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will see a slightly higher number of named storms than the historical average. This equates to a prediction of 13 to 18 named storms this season. Seven to 10 of these are expected to go on to become hurricanes.

The heart of the tropical weather season will be preceded by a train of cool fronts pushing across Florida and the Southeast. The tropical moisture coming up from the Gulf will enhance the rain amounts in this region, helping to quickly negate the building drought for places such as Florida and the Carolinas.

The same zone of warm ocean water that is expected to create a surge of thunderstorm activity across the East Coast will also support the development of tropical storms and hurricanes in July and August. Hurricane experts are also cautioning that there is a good chance that the first named storm of the season could come to life prior to the official start date of June 1.

Similar to what transpired in 2024, the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf Coast, as well as the Carolinas, will see the highest threat of direct strikes this year. The northeastern corner of the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Canada are also bracing for a more active tropical weather season in 2025.

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