Louisiana Coastline in Bullseye for Tropical Rainstorm

A tropical rainstorm is inching closer to the Louisiana coastline, threatening a flooding event across New Orleans and beyond. Read on for more details about this potentially dangerous tropical weather event.

Tropical Rainstorm Moves Off Florida and Into the Gulf

The same tropical storm that drenched a large swath of Florida earlier in the week is now picking up intensity as it churns through the warm ocean waters in the Gulf. The system is forecast to continue to move to the northwest in the hours ahead, making landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. The southern fringe of Louisiana is expected to see the most significant impacts out of this storm.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been watching this tropical weather maker for days. The agency gives it a 40% chance to evolve into a named storm. Should the feature not produce official tropical characteristics, it will still be capable of sending heavy rain and flooding throughout southern Louisiana. New Orleans is the largest urban area located in the path of the storm.

Because the feature is churning close to land, it has a limited window of opportunity to develop into a tropical depression or storm. This window will likely close by the middle of the day on Thursday.

While the system packed a punch when it first moved onto the Florida Peninsula, it began to lose its organization throughout the day on Tuesday. By early Wednesday, only the panhandle region was experiencing the breezy conditions. The majority of the rain showers and thunderstorms associated with the feature were spinning over the Gulf and away from land.

The more organized this storm becomes, the more likely it is to cause widespread damage. However, the NHC still cautions that even a mere tropical storm can trigger flash flooding.

The forecast is predicting that weak steering breezes over the Gulf will direct the rainstorm to the west and over southern Louisiana by Thursday. These steering breezes are expected to weaken at this time, paving the way for the system to stall and generate substantial moisture over a localized area.

Forecasters also note that the storm could move farther to the north and west before making its approach to land. This track would result in heavy bands of rain setting up over a greater section of the Mississippi Delta and lower Mississippi Valley. Should this track come to fruition, Houston would be in the line of fire for heavy rain.

The latest models are calling for widespread rainfall of 4 to 8 inches for southern Louisiana and some areas of southern Mississippi. Localized rainfall amounts of up to a foot are possible.

Rainfall rates could approach 1 to 3 inches per hour during the peak of the activity. Rain of this magnitude would be enough to quickly overwhelm storm drains in the populated areas of the bayou. It is important to remember that New Orleans is particularly vulnerable to flooding as it sits below sea level. In addition to New Orleans, southwestern Mississippi and the region near the Texas and Louisiana border will be at risk of experiencing flash flooding.

Specific Local Forecasts

New Orleans is already under the threat of thunderstorms on Wednesday. The Big Easy is preparing for 1 to 2 inches of rain in the overnight hours and into Thursday. Storms will continue to roam the bayou through at least Saturday. Thursday and Friday will be the breeziest days with winds coming in at 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures will hover in the mid to upper 80s for highs over the next few days. It will remain warm and muggy overnight with lows bottoming out in the upper 70s.

Moving to the west, Beaumont, Texas, will see the rain pick up after the sun goes down on Thursday. There is the potential for disruptive heavy rainfall at this time. The moisture machine will persist on Friday. You can expect highs to fall from the low 90s on Wednesday and Thursday into the low 80s by Friday in Beaumont.

It will likely be soggier heading in the other direction. For instance, Biloxi, Mississippi, is predicted to see rainfall of about a quarter of an inch on Thursday. Heavier bands of rain impact a more localized area. The chance of severe storms will persist on Friday before clearing out in time for the weekend. Biloxi is forecast to see highs bounce around in the mid to upper 80s as the tropical weather impacts the region.

Other Impacts of the Tropical Rainstorm

Looking ahead to Friday and the weekend, the torrential rain is most likely to stretch over the lower and middle sections of the Mississippi Valley. The silver lining is that this storm is not expected to be a prolific wind producer. The gustiest conditions are expected for the region near Interstate 10.

Forecasters are also warning that the system could generate isolated tornadic activity and waterspouts near the central portions of the Gulf Coast. This activity is most likely to happen on Thursday when the feature moves ashore.

Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is in the forecast for the southeastern corner of Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

Elsewhere in the tropics, forecasters are keeping an eye on the waters off the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coastlines for further tropical development by the end of the month.

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