New Tropical Storm Could Become a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane

Hurricane Simon is battering the Pacific coast of Mexico just as a new feature forms nearby. Read on for the latest update on the train of tropical weather events lining up in the Eastern Pacific.

Simon's Path Becoming More Unpredictable

The Eastern Pacific has not yet received the memo that this is the time of year when the tropical weather season begins to wind down. The latest player in this part of the world's oceans is Hurricane Simon, threatening the west-central coast of Mexico with heavy rain and rough seas.

Earlier forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had predicted that Simon would be reaching the shore soon. However, this arrival has been delayed thanks to weak steering winds in this corner of the basin. The storm is now forecast to spin slowly off the coast through at least Thursday.

The big question now is how close to land Simon will meander. A track difference of just 100 miles will mean the difference between a hurricane strike or tropical storm impacts for this part of Mexico.

There is also a good deal of uncertainty surrounding what impacts, if any, the U.S. will feel from Simon. If Simon's path takes it more to the north into Mexico,  it would move over the mountainous terrain and lose its core of moisture and high winds. Conversely, a track to the northwest would take it around the highest mountains and funnel the moisture into Arizona or New Mexico.

There is also a chance that Simon could stall and remain offshore, never coming into Mexico. This would greatly diminish the storm's impacts to both Mexico and the U.S. as it would dissipate near the coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico, without making landfall.

Lastly, some blocks of Simon's moisture could also break off from the core of the storm and drift into the central U.S. later this week. This plume of tropical moisture would then meet up with a storm coming down from the Rockies to produce a significant rain event for the nation's heartland.

Regardless of what Simon does next, portions of the Mexican coastline should prepare for the storm's outer bands. Even in the absence of a landfall, these impacts will include heavy rain, flash flooding, gusty winds, and large swells. While the worst of Simon's impacts have already moved through southwestern Mexico, the northwestern corner of Mexico is still under threat.