October to December Outlook Calls for Warm Start Prior to Cooling

Last week's declaration of a La Niña watch by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is already being reflected in the long-term weather outlook for the rest of the year. Here is what you can expect on a broad basis through the end of December.

New Weather Outlook Takes Emergence of La Niña into Consideration

The latest October to December outlook issued by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 is predicting a warm start to this stretch before unseasonably cool temperatures settle in by December. This long-range forecast is in line with the expectations of the emergence of a La Niña climate phase.

Get outside for those outdoor activities while you can. The long-range forecast is predicting a sharp drop in temperatures, even when compared to typical levels, by the end of the year. The influence of an emerging La Niña will play strongly into this weather pattern. While the next three-month stretch will start warm, La Niña will begin to exert control heading into the winter season.

The latest forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is anticipating La Niña to peak during the final quarter of 2025. La Niña generally translates to warmer and drier winters across the southern half of the U.S. Conversely, cooler and wetter weather is typically the story for the zone from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest during a La Niña winter.

Climatologists caution that these patterns are not absolutes. There are a variety of factors that can disrupt the typical La Niña patterns. For example, an intrusion of polar air that dips down far enough to the south can bring down the mercury considerably. Likewise, a marine heat wave in the Pacific Ocean may also disrupt the normal weather expected during a La Niña winter.

What to Expect the Rest of the Fall Season