Parts of the U.S. Could See Tropical Weather Over Holiday Weekend

Trouble could be brewing for beachgoers in the southeastern U.S. just as the much-anticipated Fourth of July holiday approaches. Here is a look at what is happening in the tropics as the calendar flips to July.

Tropical Weather a Possibility for the Gulf of the Southeastern U.S.

Rising ocean water temperatures in the eastern portions of the Gulf and the southern Atlantic coastline could support the development of tropical weather in the days near July Fourth. This could spell trouble for Americans hoping to take advantage of the extended weekend to head to the beach. Even if a tropical feature does not come to life, the southeastern corner of the U.S. will see an increase in rain showers and thunderstorms this week. Rough surf conditions and the danger of rip currents could also put a damper on some beach plans by the end of the week.

Forecasters have been predicting for days that a broad area of low pressure will form shortly. This zone of low pressure setting up over the Southeast is the first signal that tropical weather could be imminent.

The low pressure zone will drop to the south, producing rain showers and thunderstorm activity across the mass of hot and humid air. The main area of concern will center over the eastern Gulf, the southern portion of the Atlantic, and up into the Southeast. The greatest risk will be across the Gulf beginning on July 4 and persisting through the weekend.

A more compact and concentrated area of low pressure coming together in this zone will raise the threat of tropical development even further. This is something that meteorologists will be monitoring in the hours and days ahead.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) typically declares a tropical rainstorm when a concentrated zone of rain and thunderstorms cluster together and begin to intensify. This official declaration will pave the way for forecasters to provide advanced tracking information for those in the potential path of the feature.

A tropical depression is declared if the area of storms and low pressure generate spin that produces winds ranging between 35 and 38 mph. Ocean water temperatures in this part of the Gulf and the Atlantic are warm enough to support tropical weather development. The widely recognized threshold is 80 degrees or higher.

What Has Been Happening in the Atlantic Basin So Far This Season?

It has been a relatively docile start to the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Most recently, Tropical Storm Barry formed over the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. This feature only lasted hours before it moved ashore in eastern Mexico and began to break apart.

Just a few days earlier, Tropical Storm Andrea became the first named feature of the Atlantic season. Andrea also had a short lifespan as it churned over the central Atlantic. The closest that Andrea came to land was when it ended up a few hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda.

Cooler ocean waters throughout the Atlantic and a constant stream of dry and dusty air coming off of the Sahara Desert in Africa are working to put a lid on tropical development. This trend is predicted to continue over the next week. This means that should a new named feature spring up, it will likely be a homegrown storm in the Gulf of Mexico or near the southeastern coastline. Chantal is the next name up on the list for the Atlantic hurricane season.

It is important to note that the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is still over two months away. There is still plenty of time for this basin to begin to show more consistent signs of activity.

Update on the Eastern Pacific

Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific has been brimming with tropical weather, particularly when compared to the historical averages for this time of the year. This basin has already seen six named storms, including two hurricanes.

Tropical Storm Flossie was the latest storm to make a mark in this corner of the world. Flossie formed over the weekend, well ahead of the historical average of the beginning of August for the sixth named storm to form. The first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific generally does not form until the middle of July. However, Hurricane Erick became a Category 4 storm prior to making landfall in southern Mexico in June.

Flossie continues to move to the northwest parallel to the Mexican coastline as it continues to intensify. As of the Monday update from the NHC, Flossie was moving to the northwest at a speed of 12 mph. The latest forecast models indicate that Flossie will become a strong hurricane for a short time. The good news is that the eye of the storm is predicted to remain offshore. However, some of the moisture and high winds in the outer bands will reach the coastline of Mexico.

Rough surf conditions will also be a concern for the Mexican Pacific coast. Forecasters are also warning that the storm could make landfall on the southern part of the Baja Peninsula should it live long enough. Rainfall of over a foot is possible for the hardest-hit areas of Mexico. This would be enough precipitation to create flash flooding and mudslides.

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