Potential Area of Tropical Development Growing More Concerning in the Gulf
Christy Bowen
2 hours agoA large trough of low pressure anchored over the northeastern corner of Mexico has put forecasters on alert for possible tropical development. What does this mean for the U.S. in the days ahead? Read on for all of the details.
First Tropical Storm of Season in the Atlantic Becoming More Likely
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of low pressure near the western Gulf Coast. As of the Tuesday morning update from the forecasting agency, this feature has been designated a potential tropical cyclone with a good chance of evolving into a named feature. However, even if it does not reach the status of a named tropical event, the feature will still be potent enough to trigger heavy rain and flash flooding for much of the southern U.S.
The NHC notes that the most likely time frame for tropical development will be late Tuesday or Wednesday. As of early Tuesday, the trough was still centered over land as it crawls to the northeast at a speed of 6 mph. The feature is packing maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. Forecasters will be watching to see if the trough ejects out into the Gulf, a part of the basin where environmental conditions are moderately conducive for tropical development to take shape.
At this point, the system is presenting as a large area of disorganized rain showers and thunderstorms. The tropical weather maker is coming together due to a confluence of factors, including the merger of the remnants of the former Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina, a tropical wave of low pressure originating from Africa, and a stalled weather front along the southern flank of the U.S.
While it did not appear that anything official would come of this feature over the weekend, the NHC increased the chances of development to medium on Monday. By designating the system as a potential tropical cyclone, the NHC puts it on the map and raises the alert level. The agency runs specialized hurricane models on these features, providing more information to use when making forecasts.