Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast Forecast to See Tropical Moisture

Hurricane experts are monitoring two different areas of potential development in the tropics next week. Here is a closer look at what parts of the Atlantic basin are showing signs of life heading into the new week.

National Hurricane Center Keeping an Eye on Two Areas in the Tropics

Two different areas of the Atlantic could serve as breeding grounds for tropical weather in the days ahead. Even if a named feature does not form, a large swath of the southeastern U.S. will likely see heavy rain and the threat of rough surf conditions out of the active weather pattern.

Forecasters are warning that similar atmospheric conditions that led to the development of Tropical Storm Chantal last week will support the chance of more tropical weather in the short term. A front is expected to move across the Southeast and stall out next week, laying the groundwork for tropical conditions to ignite.

A stalled front also led to the development of Tropical Storm Chantal on the Fourth of July. This storm went on to make landfall in the early morning hours of July 6, sending copious amounts of precipitation to the Carolinas. For instance, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, picked up nearly a month's worth of rainfall in one day.

The upcoming frontal boundary is not expected to be as strong as what supported Chantal's progression. However, wind shear in this part of the Atlantic is likely to be weaker when compared to last week. Lower amounts of wind shear are associated with a higher chance of tropical development.

Even in the absence of a named tropical feature, the zone from Florida and to the north into the Carolinas should expect an uptick in rain showers and thunderstorms. This line of tropical moisture is also likely to impact some areas of the Gulf Coast, triggering the threat of localized flooding. The coastal areas should also be ready for rough surf conditions and potentially hazardous rip currents.

A secondary area of tropical development could set up north of Bermuda by the end of the weekend. The same cold front that is set to affect the Southeast could also birth tropical conditions in this part of the central Atlantic. Because ocean water temperatures are cooler in this part of the basin when compared to the Gulf and the waters off of the Southeast coastline, any potential development would likely remain subtropical in nature.

Any feature that comes together north of Bermuda is not expected to impact any major land masses.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic

The rest of the Atlantic basin is anticipated to remain calm through the middle of July. Large areas of dry and dusty air continue to come off of Africa's Sahara Desert and move to the west across the Atlantic. These dry air masses are pairing with high amounts of wind shear to put a lid on tropical development.

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season has seen three named storms thus far. The third storm typically does not form until early August, putting this season ahead of the usual pace. The average date for the first hurricane to form in the Atlantic is August 11.

The next name up on the list for the Atlantic is Dexter.

Who Should Expect the Tropical Moisture

As noted earlier, a significant portion of the southeastern U.S., Florida, and the Gulf Coast will be in the crosshairs of tropical moisture even if a named feature does not fully develop. Jacksonville will continue to see scattered storms prowling the metro area over the next several days. The greatest chance of widespread storms will be on Wednesday. Winds will also pick up at this time, hitting speeds of 15 mph. Jacksonville will see highs hover in the upper 80s and low 90s with high humidity levels making it feel even muggier.

After a dry start to the week, the rain and storms will return to New Orleans on Wednesday. The Big Easy should anticipate the highest concentration of storms by the end of the work week. Highs in the low 90s to start the week will be replaced with slightly cooler readings in the mid to upper 80s as the clouds build. Winds are not expected to be an issue this week in the bayou.

Moving into the interior portions of the Southeast, you can expect storms to erupt again later in the day on Tuesday in Atlanta. The chance of storms will persist in the largest metro area in Georgia for the balance of the week. Thursday and Friday are likely to be the wettest days in this part of the region. Temperatures that soar into the mid 90s early in the week will be replaced by readings in the upper 80s when the front arrives.

The stream of moisture will likely be more pronounced in the coastal areas of the Southeast. For instance, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, will see increasing clouds and rain beginning on Tuesday. Wednesday is shaping up to be the messiest day in this part of the region with widespread rain showers and thunderstorms ruining beach plans. Temperatures will top out in the mid 80s when the rain moves into the coastal community.

We will continue to monitor the tropics and update if the U.S. or the Caribbean should prepare for direct impacts.