Super El Niño Could Trigger Global Food and Water Crises

The emergence of a Super El Niño phase is becoming more likely. The onset of this climate phase could strain food and water supplies around the world. Read on for what humanitarian officials are warning could unfold should the Super El Niño develop.

Humanitarian Agencies Warn of Strains on Food and Water Supplies as El Niño Emerges

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an updated outlook last week, signaling that a Super El Niño could emerge in the months ahead. Not only would this development impact the seasonal storm tracks and temperatures, but it could also potentially disrupt food production and water supplies on an international scale.

El Niño is now expected to take hold by the beginning of the summer. The phase could then evolve into what meteorologists call a "Super El Niño” by October or November, making it one of the most powerful and influential El Niño events in recorded history.

The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) recently announced that it is making preparations in advance of the onset of a strong El Niño. OCHA notes that a potent El Niño is capable of unleashing flooding in some areas and widespread drought in others, triggering disease outbreaks, hunger, and resident displacement.

According to OCHA, El Niño generally increases the chance of drought across Central America, Southeast Asia, and Southern Africa. Conversely, the threat of flooding increases in East Africa and South America during times when El Niño is driving the weather patterns.

It does not take long for the impacts of El Niño to be felt in the world's supply chains. For instance, OCHA points to how the powerful El Niño phase in 2023 and 2024 left over 30 million people asking for humanitarian assistance in southern Africa. A long-lasting and widespread drought enveloped this part of the continent when rainfall totals came in at the lowest in four decades.

Drought of this magnitude can decimate farming communities, killing livestock, decreasing harvest volume, and limiting access to clean water. Agricultural interests are more likely to suffer without a robust rainy season, creating a cycle of increased hunger and malnutrition.

On the other side of the spectrum, too much rain can also trigger food and water availability concerns. Heavy rain can contaminate drinking water and wash out crops during the critical growing season. Road damage at the hands of flooding also reduces the flow of water, food, and medical aid to communities that need it the most. This is particularly worrisome in areas of the world that routinely struggle with poverty and manmade conflict.