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Texas and Gulf Coast Braces for Surge of Flooding Tropical Moisture

Christy Bowen

2 hours ago
NOAA GOES-West ABI Band 10 (lower-level water vapor) imagery captured at 14:20Z on June 12, 2026, showing the intense plume of deep tropical moisture streaming northward from Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico and toward the Texas and Louisiana coastline
NOAA GOES-West Band 10 imagery from June 12, 2026 shows a surge of deep tropical moisture — shown in vivid yellow and orange — streaming toward the Gulf Coast ahead of a weekend flooding threat. (NOAA/NESDIS/STAR)

The Eastern Pacific has seen a sudden surge in tropical activity over the last few weeks. While this part of the world's oceans is going to calm down for a bit, what is left of one of its tropical storms could birth a named feature in the Gulf that could impact parts of the U.S. Read on for all of the details.

Surge of Tropical Moisture Headed to Texas and Louisiana by the Weekend

A long swath of land from Texas to Florida is forecast to be under the gun for tropical downpours and flash flooding in the days ahead. What is left of Tropical Storm Cristina in the Eastern Pacific is predicted to emerge on the other side of Mexico in the Gulf after it dumps heavy rain across parts of Central America. 

Should some of the energy from Cristina hold it together as it crosses over the rugged terrain of Central America and southern Mexico this week, it could lay the groundwork for a tropical weather maker in the Gulf. Even in the absence of a named storm, this tropical moisture is likely to impact parts of the U.S. with significant amounts of precipitation.

The latest forecast models suggest that the energy left from Cristina will merge with a tropical wave of low pressure coming from the east. These two elements would likely meet up in the southwestern Gulf, laying the groundwork for potential tropical development. However, the window for development this weekend is extremely narrow, meaning that this is not likely to evolve into a major tropical feature at this time.

National Hurricane Center seven-day graphical tropical weather outlook issued at 7:48 AM EDT on June 12, 2026, showing a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico with less than 40% cyclone formation chance over the next seven days
The National Hurricane Center's 7-day outlook shows a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf with a low chance of tropical development — but forecasters warn it will drive heavy rain toward Texas and Louisiana regardless. (NHC/NOAA)

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