Tornado Season 2026: What States Are at the Highest Risk and When

Spring is here, and with it comes the most active stretch of the year for tornadoes across the United States. While tornadoes can and do form in every month of the year, the combination of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico colliding with cold air from the Rockies and Canada creates the perfect conditions for violent storms through late May.

The 2026 Forecast

AccuWeather's spring 2026 outlook projects fewer tornado reports than the above-average 2025 season, which tallied 1,559 tornadoes against a 15-year average of 1,392. However, forecasters warn that severe thunderstorms are more likely this year to produce damaging straight-line winds and heavy rain rather than tornadoes, which can create a false sense of security. A derecho, a line of powerful straight-line wind damage, can be just as devastating as a twister.

The greatest risk this spring runs from the Mississippi Valley through the Gulf states, especially during March and April.

States With the Highest-Risk