Tropical Moisture Heads Toward the Southeast to Close Out the Week

Right on schedule, the tropics are coming alive with potential activity. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season kicked off Sunday, June 1, and forecasters are already being kept busy with signs of life. Here is a look at what is popping up on the radar during the first week of the official season.

Southeast in Bullseye for Surge of Tropical Moisture Beginning Thursday

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking two areas of potential tropical weather development. One area is expected to send massive amounts of moisture across the Carolinas while a separate area of concern is forecast to develop in the western Caribbean by next week.

A large but disorganized area of rain showers and thunderstorms is currently spinning near the coast of the Southeast. This is a part of the Atlantic basin that is known to come to life at the beginning of the season. The current zone of impact extends from the Bahamas, Cuba, and South Florida, eventually expected to make its way toward the Carolinas.

Although the significant moisture associated with this system is good news for areas of Florida and the Southeast currently dealing with drought, too much rain over a short period of time could create concerns of flash urban flooding. Major metropolitan areas that should be prepared for flash flooding in the days ahead include Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Charleston, and Wilmington. Residents should expect up to a few inches of rain in just a few hours during the peak of the activity.

The moisture-rich air will pair with rough seas and strong onshore winds to raise the risk of rip currents, beach erosion, and coastal flooding. These issues are the most likely in an area from the Georgia coastline and to the north into southeastern Virginia.

Despite the tropical moisture coming along with this weather maker, the bulk of the system's energy will remain over land. This will mitigate the chances of a full-fledged tropical weather system.

Looking at a few specific forecasts, Jacksonville is bracing for storms to ignite on Thursday afternoon and evening. It will be a steamy day with high humidity levels and highs in the mid 80s. Winds will come out of the southwest at 10 to 15 mph while overnight lows will land in the low 70s in the city in the northeastern corner of the Sunshine State.

Moving up the coast, Savannah, Georgia, will wake up to rain showers on Thursday that evolve into the chance of thunderstorms in the latter part of the day. You can expect highs in the mid 80s and lows that fall to about 72 degrees overnight. Another round of storms is on tap for Friday afternoon and evening with slightly warmer temperatures.

Thursday afternoon will bring a similar stormy weather pattern for Charleston, South Carolina. This coastal city will see a high of about 83 degrees and lows that dip to about the 70-degree mark after the sun goes down.

It is setting up to be a messy day of weather on Thursday in Wilmington, North Carolina. The beach community is forecast to see rain early with thunderstorms erupting in the afternoon. Forecasters are warning that locally heavy rainfall is possible as the storm moves through. The forecast is also calling for a high of 79 degrees, lows that hover in the upper 60s, and winds out of the south at 10 to 15 mph.

The impacts of this system will reach inland. Places such as Raleigh, North Carolina, are expecting rainfall amounts of about an inch on Thursday as the moisture machine cranks up. The mercury will remain in the mid 70s for a high with lows sliding to about 67 degrees. Raleigh will dry out on Friday with plentiful sunshine that sends the temperatures up toward the 90-degree mark.

Turning to the Western Caribbean

Just as the system off of the Southeast coastline begins to dissipate, the NHC will turn its attention to the western Caribbean. A large area of low pressure, otherwise known as a gyre, is expected to form by the second week of June across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. These gyres are distinguished for their ability to produce named tropical features.

Forecasters had been warning that the area was ripe for the development of a typical Central American gyre. Trade winds coming in from the east will support the development of the area of low pressure. The ocean water temperatures in the Caribbean are warm enough to foster tropical weather between the dates of June 10 through June 14.

Any potential tropical depression coming to life early in the week would likely head toward the Gulf before striking either Louisiana or Florida. Conversely, a feature that develops later next week would likely head toward southern Mexico or Central America due to the steering breezes expected to be in place at that time. The latest forecast models indicate that the system will hold off in its development and intensification, resulting in the latter track.

This activity is just the start of what lies ahead. Meteorologists are in alignment with the predictions that it will be another busy tropical weather season, with up to six direct impacts on the U.S. expected. The official end date for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is November 30.

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