Tropics Wake Up: Florida and Eastern Pacific Storm Chances Rise

Right on schedule, the tropics are starting to show signs of life. Forecasters are monitoring the potential of a tropical threat in both the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific basins. Here are all of the details on these potential threats, including when and where they might churn in the days ahead.

Tropical Threat Emerging Near the Coast of Florida

Warm ocean waters circulating in the Gulf and the southwestern corner of the Atlantic could fuel the development of a tropical weather feature near the coast of Florida in early June. Experts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) believe that environmental conditions in a zone from Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula to the east near Florida could support the formation of tropical development as the calendar flips to June.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially kicks off on Monday, June 1. It is not unusual for the central and eastern portion of the Gulf to see some of the earliest developments of the season. While the waters are currently warm enough to sustain tropical weather, strong wind shear in this part of the basin has kept a lid on development. However, the latest forecast models signal that this shear could lessen in the coming days, paving the way for an area of low pressure to form in either the Gulf or the western edge of the Caribbean.

The highest chance of development would likely be during the middle or late part of next week. Where a potential tropical weather feature initially forms will drive where it tracks. For instance, a storm that comes together over the central or eastern portions of the Gulf would likely move to the northeast toward Florida. Conversely, a system that forms over the southwestern Gulf in the Bay of Campeche would track to the west and into Mexico.

Even in the absence of formal tropical development, the long-range forecast through the middle of June is indicating that Florida will see frequent rounds of rain. This is good news for the Sunshine State as it continues to grapple with worrisome drought conditions. Any degree of moisture will help to reduce the drought; however, the birth of a tropical depression or storm tracking near the peninsula could also trigger localized flooding.

How powerful a possible storm becomes will also influence how violently the seas rage. On the low end, those in the path should prepare for locally heavy storm squalls and gusty winds. Beachgoers and boaters in an area from the Gulf to the northwestern Caribbean should be alert for hazards by next week.

There is also the possibility that some of the energy needed to fuel a potential storm in the Atlantic basin could migrate across Mexico and into the Eastern Pacific. This movement would reduce the threat of tropical weather in the Atlantic while increasing the odds in the Pacific. It is rare that both sides of Central America and Southern Mexico see tropical features at the same time, as there is only so much energy to go around.