What a Historic Polar Vortex Disruption Means for Your Winter Forecast

The polar vortex set a new record for the earliest disruption ever. But what does that mean for the upcoming winter weather? Here is what you need to know as winter approaches.

Meteorologists Note Early Polar Vortex Disruption

According to new data revealed last week, the polar vortex has been disrupted from its typical position at the earliest point in a calendar year. This band of powerful winds circulating over the North Pole influences the weather in the U.S. and Canada. Normal seasonal weather patterns in the Earth's lower atmosphere often send waves high into the stratosphere, disrupting the vortex's position and strength.

In short, a strong and stable polar vortex keeps the coldest air on the planet locked up at the North Pole. Conversely, the disruption of the vortex can release the Arctic air that circulates in this part of the world. The frigid air that escapes is able to creep down into Canada and the northern U.S., triggering sharp temperature drops.

However, just because this disruption happened at the earliest point ever this year, it does not mean that it is going to be a brutal winter. Forecasters say that the emergence of the Super El Niño may actually mitigate some of the impacts of a weakening polar vortex.

This is largely because temperatures have been trending warmer than historical averages across Canada and the northern U.S. These warmer readings are typical of a Super El Niño year. This means that any air being pushed down from Canada and into the U.S. is not cold enough yet.

In addition, forecasters note that changes in the stratosphere do not immediately translate to colder temperatures at the surface. It can take several weeks for these disruptions to inch down and impact the jet stream and overall weather patterns.