What Forecasters Are Saying About the Early Fall Outlook for the U.S.

Your early long-range fall forecast is here. The start of the meteorological fall on Monday, September 1, is right around the corner. But despite what the calendar says, not all areas of the country will feel like fall when the calendar flips to September.

What are the experts saying about temperature trends, how long the tropical moisture will be a threat, and what parts of the U.S. will continue to see wildfire danger? Read on for a high-level view of what is in store over the next few months.

Temperature Expectations

When it comes to temperatures, the eastern third of the U.S. is expecting the summer temperatures to persist well into the start of fall. It will be warmer across the western third of the nation, with temperatures expected to trend over the historical average. The heat will also linger well into October across the Desert Southwest and the Southeast.

The chilliest air is forecast to first impact the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. Additionally, the Great Lakes region could see a faster start to fall with cooler temperatures on the horizon. The rest of the country will need to wait until October or even November to start pulling out the sweaters for good.

You can expect the first flakes to fly across the Rockies and into the chilliest parts of the northern Plains states. Most parts of the Great Lakes will see a slow start to the typical lake-effect snow season this year.

Tropical Weather and Flooding Potential

The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season does not happen until the middle of September. This means that those areas prone to tropical weather will not breathe easy for quite some time. The warmer waters across the Caribbean and the Gulf will serve as the breeding ground for these tropical weather systems.

The continual influx of tropical moisture will also amplify the threat of flash flooding
across the zone from the central Gulf Coast and into the Appalachians. This means that some of the areas that saw deadly flooding earlier in the summer will be back in the crosshairs of this threat.

Flash flooding danger will also remain a concern for the Southwest. It takes time for the North American monsoon season to run its course, meaning that this region will continue to dodge the chance of flooding rainfall. The start of the fall months also marks the beginning of the wet season in the Pacific Northwest. After a dry summer in this region, any rain that does fall will swiftly run off the parched landscape and naturally raise the risk of flooding.

As is typical for the early fall, the clash of the stubborn summer temperatures and the incoming cooler air will support the development of thunderstorm activity. The most frequent action is forecast to set up in an area from the central Gulf Coast and to the north into the Ohio Valley. A moderate risk of severe weather, packing the threat of tornadoes, will be the most prevalent in October and into early November.

When it comes to allergies, experts are predicting that grass and weed pollen levels will inch up higher than average in the early fall from the Plains and to the east into the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. This is because the heavy rain of the late spring and summer will inherently increase these allergens.

What About Wildfire Danger and Drought Conditions?

The peak of the wildfire season in the West is typically in the early fall months. This is particularly true in the Northwest and down into California. Gusty winds coming in from the Pacific will serve as seeds for the storms that can whip up the flames over the dry vegetation.

Moving to the east, parts of the Great Lakes, the Northeast, and the Carolinas will also need to be prepared for an elevated fire risk this fall. The dry fuels left by 2024's Hurricane Helene will serve as tinder for any lightning strikes in this part of the Carolinas and northern Georgia.

The ongoing drought conditions will begin to improve in the latter part of the fall for most of the western U.S. The monsoon season could bring relief to the drought in areas of New Mexico and Arizona.

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