What Needs to be in Place for Tropical Strikes in the Northeast

As the Atlantic hurricane season barrels towards its climatological peak, many Americans are finishing their prep in anticipation of what may lie ahead in the weeks to come. While the Gulf Coast and Southeast are well-versed in hurricane prep, those who live in the Northeast have not experienced a major hurricane strike in decades. Is this part of the country overdue for a hurricane landfall?

History of Tropical Weather in the Northeast

It has been over seven decades since a major hurricane came ashore in the Northeast. However, scientists continue to warn that this corner of the country could be overdue for a significant tropical weather event.

Meteorologists note that the chances of a major hurricane, defined as Category 3 or higher, hitting the Northeast come in at about 1.5% in any given year. This percentage translates to a major hurricane every 60 to 70 years in the zone from New Jersey and up into New England. The odds of a hurricane on a smaller scale for this region are one every 15 to 20 years.

The largest hurricane on the record books to make a direct strike on the Northeast occurred in 1938 when the "Long Island Express" storm devastated the region. The northeastern U.S. more frequently sees the remnants of major hurricanes that come ashore thousands of miles away along the Gulf Coast.

For example, 2024's Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Texas before moving to the northeast and generating a record number of tornado warnings in New York state on July 10. A similar situation occurred in 2021 when Hurricane Ida made a direct hit on Louisiana before moving to the northeast, packing flooding rainfall. New York City recorded 10 to 12 inches of rain as the remnants of this monster storm moved through the urban area.

Understanding Why the Northeast Does Not Experience More Hurricane Landfalls

The most obvious explanation for why the Northeast does not see as much tropical activity as its neighbors to the south lies in the ocean water temperatures. Budding tropical features need warm ocean waters to grow and thrive. Sea-surface temperatures get progressively cooler to the north. As hurricanes churn to the north up the Atlantic coastline, they naturally begin to weaken as they encounter the cooler water.

Storms that are moving at a faster clip are more likely to survive the journey through the cooler waters. This is why forecasters are always paying close attention to the forward speed of a disturbance.

Wind shear is another mitigating factor for tropical weather events. These winds work to break apart building storms, limiting their impact. The fast-moving winds tend to increase in intensity along with the latitude, explaining why tropical features do not survive as they travel farther to the north.

Despite all of the roadblocks, hurricanes can still survive the journey to the north and land in the Northeast. There are a number of ingredients that all need to be in place for a storm to travel this far intact.

A strong Bermuda High is essential if a storm hopes to survive the trip through the Atlantic. This zone of high pressure needs to bulge to the west just enough to send the storms toward the Northeast rather than the Gulf, the Southeast, or back out to sea.

Storms also need a large dip in the jet stream moving across the East Coast. This southward dip works to pick up the storm and send it to the north. The timing of this dip interacting with the Bermuda High has to be just right if the tropical weather maker has any hope of survival.

Meteorologists also monitor the position of any blocking highs over the eastern edge of Canada. These highs work to block the storm from escaping the trajectory into the Northeast.

Lastly, the feature needs to be moving at a fast rate in order to power through the cold waters quickly enough to mitigate the prohibitive impacts. The 1938 Long Island Express was churning at an eye-popping speed of 50 mph at the time that it made landfall in New York. This allowed the storm to hold it together even when it met up with the cooler ocean waters.

Hurricane experts warn that storms that churn toward the Northeast can intensify quickly. This leaves little time for residents to prepare. People living in the Northeast are also not as accustomed to tropical weather landfalls, meaning that they are not as likely prepared as Americans living in Florida, the Southeast, or along the Gulf Coast.

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