What the Polar Vortex Means for Our Winters: Guide to One of the Atmosphere’s Most Powerful Forces

While Groundhog Day offers a lighthearted tradition for predicting how long winter may last, scientists rely on something far more reliable. They study the polar vortex, a large region of low pressure and swirling cold air located above the North and South Poles. This circulation forms in the stratosphere, about 10 to 30 miles above Earth’s surface, and plays a major role in shaping winter weather across the United States.

Seasonal weather patterns cause this vortex to grow and shrink, heavily influencing weather patterns for the U.S. If we can predict how the polar vortex is going to act, we may get a strong indication of the temperatures we experience in the future seasons.

What is the Polar Vortex?

In the stratosphere above each pole sits a mass of extremely cold, rotating air known as the polar vortex. The stratosphere is the second layer of the atmosphere, positioned just above the troposphere and extending from roughly 10 to 30 miles in altitude.