What to Expect for Tornado Season of 2026

The severe weather season is underway across the U.S. Spring storms usher in a number of potentially dangerous impacts, ranging from flooding rainfall to large hail to destructive winds. But it is often tornadoes that lead to the most loss of life. Here is what the long-range forecast is saying about the expected intensity and impact zones for the upcoming tornado season.

Diving Into the Tornado Forecast for 2026

The spring of 2025 grabbed headlines due to the high amount of tornadic activity. Almost two-thirds of all of the tornadoes confirmed in 2025 happened between March and May. Forecasters are predicting that this spring's tornado numbers are more likely to end up around the historical average.

Meteorologists are predicting that the U.S. will see 1,050 to 1,250 tornadoes this year. This estimation compares to a total of 1,544 preliminary tornado reports last year. For context, the historical average for tornadoes in the U.S. throughout the year is 1,225.

Experts caution that lower anticipated numbers this year do not mean that the threat should not be taken seriously. All it takes is one twister spinning up in a populated area to define the spring season. When it comes to tornadoes, the size and strength of the twisters are more consequential than the volume.

The risk of tornadoes will naturally increase as the spring progresses. March's tornadic activity is predicted to focus on the swath of land from Oklahoma to northern Georgia to the east and to the north into Illinois.

The bulk of April's action will shift to the Mississippi River Valley. By May, you can expect the greatest threat of tornadoes to center over Tornado Alley. This will put areas from central Texas and up into eastern Nebraska in the bullseye of the most dangerous twisters.

This is a good time to begin your preparations for what may lie ahead. Good tasks to put on your list include identifying the safest places for shelter in your home and place of work, ensuring that your smartphone is set up to receive alerts, restocking emergency supplies, and making plans for pets or small children who may need help moving to safety.

When and Where to Expect Severe Weather This Spring