Why Meteorologists Are Worried About Uptick in Tropical Weather

Just as hurricane experts have been predicting for weeks, the second half of September is shaping up to be ripe with tropical weather activity. Increasingly warm water temperatures in portions of the Atlantic and the Gulf will pair with decreasing amounts of dry air and wind shear to create a fertile breeding ground for storms in the weeks ahead. Here is what you need to know heading into the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Sizzling Ocean Waters Will Provide Breeding Grounds for Tropical Weather

It has been nearly two weeks since the last tropical storm roamed the Atlantic. Since that time, sea surface temperatures have continued to inch up across the main development region. Some parts of the basin are now experiencing water temperatures at record-high levels. Not only do these warm waters increase the likelihood of tropical development, but they also prime the basin for storms to go through the process of rapid intensification.

In addition to the toasty sea surface temperatures, readings are running high in the deeper parts of the basin. The true heat content is higher as there have been no major tropical events to stir up the cool water and bring it up to the surface.

Water temperatures in the warmest areas of the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the southwestern Atlantic are now approaching the 90-degree threshold. This is well over the 80-degree readings needed to support tropical development. Lastly, the waters circulating northwest of Africa are also warming at a quick pace, meaning that tropical waves that eject off the continent are not as likely to dissipate as they make their journey across the Atlantic.

Air temperatures are also building in the tropics. The rising mercury is laying the groundwork for an explosion of tropical activity.

Forecasters are warning of the threat of rapid intensification should a storm come to life. Warm water temperatures that extend deep below the surface are more likely to encourage rapid intensification.

Impacts of Dry Air and Wind Shear