A Tropical Wave Could Become the Atlantic's First Hurricane This Season

A tropical wave that recently emerged off the western coast of Africa could develop into a named storm in the next few days. However, it will first have to get through a zone of hostile wind shear if it wants to make it to the Caribbean intact. Here is an update on what is happening in the tropical Atlantic.

What Needs to Happen for Tropical Storm Dolly to Erupt

The tragic passing of musical legend Dolly Parton has been top news this week. Could a tropical storm bearing the same name also grab some headlines?

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are closely watching a tropical wave that could evolve into the next named storm in the Atlantic. While the feature has been assigned a high chance of becoming the next tropical depression in the basin, it has a more daunting task to make it through the Caribbean alive.

The next name on the list of predetermined monikers in the Atlantic is Dolly. The wave started to pick up steam on Wednesday as it churned through an area with weaker wind shear and higher levels of moisture to fuel its growth. However, this feature is forecast to meet up with a stronger zone of wind shear when it reaches the Leeward Islands on Sunday or Monday.

At the very least, this wave is forecast to usher in locally heavy rain showers and gusty storms to the Leeward Islands. Should the storm take on defined tropical characteristics, the islands could be dealing with destructive winds, flash flooding, and rough seas.

There is also the chance that the wave will intensify more and make a sharp turn to the north. This would take it well away from the U.S.

Lastly, the wave could remain a weak tropical storm as it moves farther to the west, potentially presenting concerns for Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, and the mainland U.S. later next week. The sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and near the U.S. coastline are sufficiently warm to support tropical development if wind shear levels fall in the days ahead.