Acapulco Could See Impact of Major Hurricane by End of the Week

The second hurricane of the season is on the horizon in the Eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm Erick formed in this part of the world's ocean and is forecast to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours. Here is an update on Erick, including what parts of Mexico should brace for impact.

Latest on Tropical Storm Erick

Tropical Storm Erick came to life off of the coast of Mexico early Tuesday, becoming the fifth named storm of the young Eastern Pacific season. As of the Tuesday update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Erick was spinning with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at a speed of 9 mph on its way to the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Forecasters are raising the alarm bells that Erick could become a major hurricane, defined as a Category 3 or higher. The latest forecast models indicate that Erick will continue to strengthen over the next few days. It is likely that Erick will become the most powerful hurricane in the Northern and Western Hemispheres thus far this year.

Erick formed on the heels of the former Tropical Storm Dalila, continuing the active weather pattern in this part of the tropics. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season is off to a hot start and is well ahead of its average pace. For instance, the fourth tropical storm in this system typically does not come together until the middle of July. Similarly, the average date for the first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific is not until June 26. For perspective, this year's Hurricane Barbara was born on June 8.

Erick is now distinguished as the earliest fifth-named storm to roam the Eastern Pacific since July 9, 1956. The average day for the fifth storm of the season to form is July 23, meaning that the season is more than one month ahead of its typical pace.

Hurricane experts predict that Erick will move at a slow pace to the northwest, becoming a hurricane by the end of the day Tuesday. From there, Erick will likely intensify quickly as it inches closer to southwestern Mexico. The largest metro area in the cone of uncertainty is Acapulco. There is a good chance that the popular resort area could see the wrath of Erick as a hurricane. Potential impacts include flooding rainfall, powerful winds, and dangerous storm surge.

In comparison, Barbara peaked at a mere Category 1 hurricane last week with maximum sustained weinds of 75 mph. Barbara also churned well offshore the coast of Mexico, limiting its overall impacts.

The amount of rain that falls as a result of Erick will depend on how much it grows and intensifies as it moves closer to land. It is important to note that the impacts will be felt well before the center of the storm makes landfall.

The rugged topography moving inland from the coast of Mexico will inherently raise the danger of flash flooding and mudslides. The coastal areas will bear the brunt of the high winds, triggering large swells, hazardous waves, and overwash across the beaches. Dangerous rip currents will also impact the area prior to the storm's arrival.

Meteorologists predict that the Eastern Pacific will see between 14 and 18 tropical storms this season. Of this number, seven to 10 are expected to evolve into hurricanes, with three to six of these making direct contact with parts of Mexico and Central America.

The NHC is also monitoring another area of potential development to the west of Central America. The environmental conditions in this part of the basin could support the formation of a tropical rainstorm between June 24 and June 27.

Atlantic Basin Remains Dormant

The major headline of the Northern Hemisphere hurricane season so far has been the contrast of the active weather in the Eastern Pacific compared with the calm conditions in the Atlantic basin. Frequent infusions of dry and dusty air and disruptive wind shear have worked together to put a lid on tropical development in the early part of the season.

While the NHC is not expecting any major activity in the weeks ahead, experts are still monitoring the southwestern Gulf and the western edge of the Caribbean for potential tropical activity by the end of the month. These areas have seen an uptick of showers and thunderstorms over the last few days, however, no defined organization has been present.

As a reminder, the official dates of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are May 15 through November 30. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30 with a peak date of activity of September 10.

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