Historical Odds of Experiencing a White Christmas Dependent on Location

The unusually high amount of snow that has blanketed much of the central and eastern U.S. in recent weeks may lead some people to get their hopes up for a White Christmas. However, meteorologists warn that snow covering the ground on the holiday is not at all the norm for most parts of the country. Here is what history tells us about the chances of a White Christmas across specific regions.

Overall Chances of a White Christmas

The chances of a White Christmas are likely much lower than pop culture has led us to believe. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is not a lot of land outside of the far northern U.S., New England, and the Mountain West where the odds of snow on the ground on Christmas are greater than 50%.

NOAA has tracked daily snow cover across the U.S. since 2003. The average snow cover on Christmas morning across the Lower 48 from 2003 through 2024 is only 36%. It is important to note that the amount of coverage has varied greatly over this time period, ranging from a low of 18% in 2023 to a high of 63% in 2009.