Caribbean Could be Next Up for Tropical Development

The Caribbean is being put on alert for the development of a tropical event by next week. This potential new area of concern could also impact the southeastern U.S. Here is what forecasters are monitoring as the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season marches onward.

Area of Concern Developing for the Caribbean

A tropical wave could develop into a tropical storm as it feeds on the warm waters of the Caribbean in the days ahead. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) highlighted a concerning tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa earlier in the week. This cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms is tracking to the west across the Atlantic, signaling that it could acquire tropical characteristics when it reaches the Caribbean.

As of the Friday update from the NHC, the wave is currently in the central Atlantic about 1,000 miles from the Windward Islands. The feature is moving at a speed of about 15 to 20 mph. The NHC has assigned this wave a 10% chance of becoming a named feature in the next 48 hours and a 30% chance of taking on tropical characteristics in the next week. In addition to the warm waters in this part of the basin, low wind shear in the Caribbean will also support its development.

The next name up for the year is Melissa, followed by Nestor. In the short term, the wave is forecast to deliver rain, thunderstorms, and gusty winds to parts of the Leeward Islands this weekend.

There are still several tracks that this disturbance could take in the coming days. Its proximity to the northern coast of South America could limit its development and prevent it from evolving into a tropical storm. Interaction with land inherently breaks up tropical weather makers.

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