Early Fourth of July Forecast - What to Expect on the Holiday

Your early Fourth of July forecast is here. What parts of the country will be trying to time outdoor activities between rain showers and thunderstorms, and what areas will need to be diligent about applying sunscreen? Read on for all the details.

Where Will Holiday Outdoor Activities Will Go Off Without a Hitch?

According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), about 72.2 million people are expected to travel at least 50 miles away from home in the days surrounding the holiday. Of this number, about 62.2 million are predicted to travel by car.

In the days leading up to Independence Day on Friday, the West should brace for hot conditions that send you heading for another glass of water or your sunglasses. Seasonable temperatures will be the story over the next few days for the region from the Great Lakes and to the Northeast. High humidity levels with rain showers and thunderstorms could wreak havoc in the zone from New Mexico and to the east into the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida.

Looking at the holiday specifically, parts of the interior Southwest, the Midwest, and the Southeast will be the most likely parts of the country to see heavy rain and powerful thunderstorms. Residents with plans to attend a parade, host a barbecue, or light off fireworks will want to keep an eye on this developing forecast.

Tropical Weather Could Also Pose Issues in the Southeast and the Gulf

A surge of tropical moisture could also dampen some outdoor activities. Forecasters have been warning for days that an area of clouds, rain, and storms is expected to grow and organize from the northeastern Gulf Coast and over to the southern Atlantic coast as the month comes to an end. This activity will persist into the first week of July, potentially intensifying into tropical rainstorms.

Beachgoers heading to the coast of northern Florida, the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles, and the coast of the Carolinas could see these tropical impacts, particularly if a named feature comes to life. Possible effects include high winds and rough surf conditions.

A tropical rainstorm formed in the Bay of Campeche on Saturday morning, expected to take aim at Mexico by the end of the weekend. While this feature is not forecast to impact the U.S., it is a sign that activity is starting to become more prevalent in the Atlantic basin as the calendar flips from June to July.

The long-range forecast is calling for large complexes of thunderstorms to ignite over the northern and central Plains before heading to the Midwest around the holiday. The exact track of these complexes will determine what communities need to be alert for potentially dangerous weather on Friday. As of now, the most likely metro areas in the line of fire for storms include Chicago, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Kansas City. Even if storms do not develop, these metro areas may be dealing with rain and cloudy conditions.

It will be a much cooler week in the Northeast as the region recovers from last week's heat wave. Humidity levels are also forecast to continue the downward trajectory, coming in at readings lower than the historical average for the beginning of July.

The latest models indicate that most of the Northeast will remain dry on the holiday. The greatest chance of rain showers will be in the northern reaches of New England and down into upstate New York. The large urban centers of Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. are forecast to enjoy pleasant conditions on Friday.

The weather for the big fireworks celebration over the National Mall in Washington, D.C. is looking promising. The nation's capital is forecast to see mostly sunny skies and highs that reach the mid 80s. Winds will be light, coming in at 5 to 10 mph from the north. Grab a jacket if headed outside in the evening as lows will settle in the upper 60s.

Other Potential Areas of Disruption

A secondary area of storms is forecast to cause disruptions on the holiday for areas of New Mexico, West Texas, eastern Arizona, and into parts of Colorado. This weather will be the result of the start of the North American monsoon season, sending sporadic thunderstorms across the region. These storms tend to pop up during the mid-afternoon hours and linger into the evening. This makes getting gout early for hikes and other outdoor activities important. Potential hazards during a monsoon event include frequent lightning strikes and flash flooding.

Scattered rain showers could also move through parts of western Washington and the northwestern corner of Oregon. However, the day is not expected to be a total washout in this part of the Northwest.

The temperatures will soar across the interior West, the interior Southwest, and over into the parts of the Plains states. These areas should expect readings to climb into the 90s on Independence Day. Readings will hover in the low 100s over the desert terrain of the Southwest. For example, Phoenix will see predictably toasty temperatures with a high of about 102 degrees under plentiful sunshine.

The western third of the U.S. will likely experience the best overall weather on the holiday. Other than a few pockets of rainfall that may briefly mar plans, it will be mostly dry and warm for all of the festivities. The tradeoff is that the dry conditions could spur some municipalities to put a ban on fireworks.

The Fourth of July is a popular day to head to the beach across the nation. Waters will remain chilly along the coastline of New England, the upper mid-Atlantic, and up and down the Pacific Coast. Ocean water temperatures will range from the upper 40s and into the low 60s in these areas.

The popular holiday destination of Atlantic City, New Jersey, is expecting times of sun and clouds and highs that top out in the low 80s. Overnight readings will dip into the upper 60s.

Conversely, ocean waters will be warm enough for swimming across the Gulf Coast and the southern coastline of the Atlantic. Swimmers can expect surf temperatures to hover in the 80s.

We will continue to update the forecast for the holiday in the days ahead. Check back later for a more precise forecast as you finalize your plans.

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