Eastern Pacific Signaling That First Tropical Storm is on the Horizon

Will the first tropical storm of the hurricane season come to life before the end of May? While that is not looking likely for the Atlantic basin, it could be a possibility for the Eastern Pacific. Here is a look at what meteorologists are monitoring in this part of the world's oceans.

First Signs of Life Brewing in the Tropical Eastern Pacific

With an official start date of May 15, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season is already underway. This differs from the start date of June 1 for the Atlantic hurricane season. It was been quiet across the ocean waters in North America, however, there could be signals that something is brewing in the Eastern Pacific.

According to the latest forecast models, the atmosphere is showing favorable signs for tropical development to the east of Central America. Small zones of rain showers and thunderstorms are starting to demonstrate signs of organization, a sign that tropical development could be a possibility by the early part of next week.

The most likely area of development would be off of the Pacific coast of Central America and up to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Forecasters believe that the most likely time frame for development is between May 26 and May 30, with a greater chance on the back side of that period.

The latest long-range tropical forecast is predicting 14 to 18 tropical storms as well as seven to 10 hurricanes across the Eastern Pacific this season. This compares to the historical average for this basin of 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes.

The current cluster of showers and storms could evolve into the first named tropical feature of the season for either of the basins in North America. Should this feature develop into a named feature, it will go by the name of Alvin. Even if the feature does not develop into a formal named storm, it will likely track close enough to the southeastern coast of Mexico to produce locally heavy rain. This will be a development that forecasters will be monitoring closely over the weekend.

Although it may seem early for tropical development in the Eastern Pacific, the average date for the first storm of the year is June 10. June 26 is the average date for the first hurricane of the year in the Eastern Pacific.

A storm coming together in the next week would be well ahead of the normal pace. It would also be significantly earlier than last year's first storm of the year when Aletta was born on July 4. Aletta is now distinguished as being the latest that a tropical storm has formed in the Eastern Pacific since satellites have been used to track and confirm these developments.