Elevated Flood Threat from Texas to the Carolinas Over Last Week of May

Several rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms will take aim at a zone from Texas to the Carolinas this week. Although the moisture is much needed for areas dealing with ongoing drought, the persistent precipitation will also usher in the risk of flash flooding. This is what you need to know if you live in this part of the country.

Stalled Front Will Trigger Widespread Rain and Storms in the South

The last week of May is shaping up to be a soggy affair for a large swath of the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast. An influx of tropical moisture will combine with a stalled frontal boundary to support the development of repeated waves of heavy rain and the threat of thunderstorms in a zone from Texas and Oklahoma to the east into Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

A front that is currently creeping to the south will stall out across the southern U.S. this week. The stall will allow multiple areas of low pressure to move along with the frontal boundary, creating widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. A general 2 to 8 inches of rain is expected over the next few days, with the potential of some higher localized rain totals.

Forecasters are warning that repeated rounds of moisture over the same area will raise the risk of flash flooding as storm drainage systems become overwhelmed. This threat will be the greatest in urban areas.

This part of the country is in desperate need of moisture. According to the last report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, a significant portion of the southern U.S. is under the designation of abnormally dry to exceptional drought. The ongoing dryness is becoming problematic for both agricultural interests and water supplies heading into the hot summer months.

So while the moisture is welcome across the parched landscape, too much of a good thing can often be a bad thing. Recent forecast models suggest that some of the storms moving along the front could merge into the surge of tropical moisture coming up from the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the southwestern Atlantic. Areas that see the heaviest rain will also be under the greatest danger of urban and flash flooding. This threat will be the highest in low-lying areas and locations along small streams.

In addition, some of the bands of heavy rain will also generate the chance of locally gusty and severe thunderstorms. This danger will be the highest on Tuesday in eastern portions of New Mexico and into western and southern Texas. Potential impacts include high winds and damaging hail.