Elevated Flooding Threat Across Nation's Midsection as Storms Persist

The stormy weather pattern will persist throughout much of the central U.S. in the days ahead, bringing a renewed threat of flooding. When will the saturated region get a break?

Weekend Will End on a Stormy Note for Much of the Plains and Midwest

The weekend kicked off where last week left off across some areas of the Plains and the Midwest. Minneapolis woke up to volatile conditions on Saturday as the same complex of storms that erupted late Friday moved through the Twin Cities. Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport recorded a top wind gust of 62 mph during the peak of the activity.

After a slower start on Sunday morning, the storms are expected to get going again later in the day. While it may feel like much of the same for storm-weary residents, there will be some key factors that differentiate Sunday's storms from what the region saw earlier in the weekend.

Unlike the past few days, Sunday's storms will pack the ingredients needed to potentially produce tornadoes. The greatest risk of tornadic activity will be across northeastern Nebraska, the southeastern corner of South Dakota, and into southwestern Minnesota. As the day progresses, the threat of tornadoes may creep farther to the east and into western Wisconsin. The worst of the storms is expected to begin to weaken after the sun goes down.

Sunday's storms will also cover a larger swath of land when compared to the impacts to close out the week. For instance, storms are a possibility well into the Midwest and the Great Lakes.

Monday's Forecast Sees the Storms Shifting to the South

A mass of cooler and drier air will push across the High Plains and into some areas of the Midwest on Monday. The threat of tornadoes will also dissipate on Monday. However, forecasters are warning that the storm cells will still be potent enough to usher in hail and damaging winds.

The heavy rain associated with this weather pattern will increase the chances of flash flooding, particularly in communities that have been under the gun for consecutive days of stormy conditions. It only takes one moisture-rich storm cell to dump enough rain to trigger a flooding event. You only have to go back to last Sunday when Milwaukee picked up over 6 inches of rain in a few hours to know how dangerous this setup can be.

In addition to the threat of flash flooding, the persistent storms will also likely disrupt travel in the air and on the roads. The highest chance of meaningful moisture for places like Des Moines will come under the cover of darkness and into the early hours on Tuesday.

The silver lining for some communities is that the rain will be put to good use. Several areas across the Great Lakes could see a surge of moisture to alleviate the growing drought conditions. For example, Grand Rapids, Michigan, is in the midst of its seven-driest summer on record. The city has only recorded 5.70 inches of rain so far this season.

Grand Rapids is forecast to see the rain pick up in intensity and coverage on Monday evening. Thunderstorms are also a good possibility as the evening progresses. It will remain warm in this part of the region with highs that hover in the mid 80s to start the week. Although the incoming moisture will not put an end to the drought, every little bit of rain will help to get the totals back on track.

Change on the Horizon Beginning Tuesday

A break from the steady stream of moisture is on the way for the central U.S. beginning on Tuesday. The line of storms is forecast to track farther to the east and the south, resulting in an infusion of drier air for the Midwest and up into the Great Lakes region.

Cooler temperatures will slide down into the U.S. from Canada at the hands of a zone of high pressure. The respite from the heat will also stretch into the northern portions of the Mississippi Valley and beyond. For instance, temperatures will fall from the 90-degree mark on Tuesday to highs that max out in the low 80s on Wednesday in Indianapolis.

We will continue to monitor where the focus of the storms is headed as the week progresses. Stay tuned for the updates that you need to plan your week.

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