Fewer Fires but More Burned Acreage Predicted in U.S. Wildfire Forecast

The wildfire season is already off to a hot start, no pun. Massive wildfires have destroyed several homes and structures in the Southeast and Florida. What does the rest of the year have in store across the U.S.? Here is a look at what the experts are predicting for the 2026 wildfire forecast.

Overall Wildfire Forecast

Climatologists are predicting that the U.S. will see more burned acreage this year when compared to 2025. Forecasters at AccuWeather have predicted that between 65,000 and 80,000 fires will ignite across the country this year. This compares to 77,850 fires reported last year. For context, the historical average is 68,707 wildfires.

While the number of fires is within normal ranges, the amount of acreage forecast to burn is higher than usual. AccuWeather is predicting that between 5.5 million and 9 million acres will burn in 2026, well above the 5,131,474 acres torched in 2025. The historical average for burned acreage is 7,000,514.

What do these numbers tell us? The expectation is that while there will be fewer overall fires, the greater amount of burned acreage means that the blazes are predicted to be larger. This discrepancy indicates that the fires will be more difficult to contain once they get started.

In addition to the obvious losses to property and vegetation, the bigger wildfires will also increase the risk of hazardous smoky conditions. Depending on wind patterns, smoke and haze can drift thousands of miles away from the point of impact. Smoky skies can also bring down the air temperatures by a few degrees.

What to Expect in California and the Rest of the West

As is typical, the wildfire threat in California will peak at the end of the summer and into the fall months. This risk is particularly prevalent in the interior and lower elevations of the Golden State. The record-breaking heat that spread across California early in the spring season has already melted off much of the snowpack built over the winter.

The impacts of the early-season heat will translate to a higher-than-usual risk of fires in the California foothills by late May and early June. The spring heat wave was followed by a train of late-season storms. While this moisture did not erase the growing drought and wildfire concerns, it did lead to an increase in vegetation. This vegetation will eventually dry out when the moisture machine turns off, supporting the development of more wildfires.

Above-average water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean will limit the usual marine layer early in the summer. The lack of a persistent marine layer means that some areas could see wildfires pop up sooner than is usually expected along some of the state's coastal areas.

The wildfire risk will become more widespread as the summer progresses. The forecast models suggest that the worst of the fire activity in California will peak in the autumn when the winds start to whip up.

Looking at the rest of the western U.S., the most persistent wildfire threat in the months ahead will be in a zone from Arizona and into Utah, New Mexico, Nevada, Idaho, western Montana, and the Pacific Northwest. Like California, below-average snowpack and above-average temperatures will increase the risk of fire hazards heading into the hottest part of the summer.

The annual North American monsoon season may bring much-needed moisture to the parched Southwest, but it also generates frequent lightning strikes capable of starting more fires. The good news in the long-range forecast is the expectation of above-average tropical activity for the Eastern Pacific basin this summer. Should this forecast materialize, the Southwest will be the beneficiary of more rain this summer.

Heading up to the northwestern corner of the country, the wildfire season is forecast to start on a quiet note. However, the threat of more prolific fires will expand in July and August when snowpack stores become depleted.