Flash Flooding Threat Back in the Picture in Texas This Weekend

The week is ending on a hot note in Texas with temperatures on the upswing. The searing heat will soon be replaced with a renewed threat of rain showers and thunderstorms, potentially complicating the ongoing recovery operations. Here is a look at the upcoming forecast for the ravaged region.

Texans Grapple with Flood Recovery with More Storms on the Way

Texas could be dealing with another round of flooding as more thunderstorms and heavy rain take aim at the region. It has been just one week since a massive flash flooding event killed at least 125 people in central Texas. As of late Friday, there are still about 160 people known to be missing.

Recovery crews on the scene in Texas Hill Country have been dealing with building heat and high humidity levels in recent days. The chance of more rain and flash flooding will put crews on edge as they sort through the rubble left behind from the floodwaters.

The forecast is calling for widespread storms to come to life over much of the southern Plains in the days ahead, encompassing the area that was impacted by the flooding of the Guadalupe River on the Fourth of July. The arrival of the storms will only work to slightly trim the heat that has been building over the region.

This is the time of the year when the sun is the most intense across Texas, sending the real feel readings climbing. While the upcoming weather is typical for the middle of July, it will feel more oppressive to crews working to build back the devastated infrastructure as a result of the flooding. Real feel temperatures will hover around 100 degrees during the peak afternoon heating hours well into next week.

President Donald Trump visited the impacted areas of Texas on Friday afternoon. After meeting with some of the families of the victims, the president spoke with first responders and other local officials. Trump deflected criticism from the media about the federal response to the disaster in the immediate aftermath.

Where and When to Expect the New Round of Storms

The next round of storms will come at the hands of a front that will cross the southern Rockies and over into the southern Plains this weekend. Forecasters believe that the front will stall over the weekend, supporting the development of more storms in a zone from Texas and to the east into Arkansas.

Some of the storms will creep along at a slow clip, translating to several inches of rain in a short period of time. Because so much of the ground is still overly saturated, it will not be able to absorb significant amounts of moisture. As a result, the flooding threat will be amplified this weekend and into Monday.

This is a good time to enable all smartphone weather notifications so that you can receive flood-related information. Those in low-lying areas or near small streams and rivers should also make a plan to evacuate to higher ground if needed.

A large swath of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas is forecast to pick up at least 2 inches of rain out of this weather maker. The greatest concentration of storms is forecast for the northern edges of Texas and into southern Oklahoma. Up to a foot of rain could fall in this area.

Texas Hill Country should be prepared for 1 to 2 inches of rain out of this system. In addition to the heavy rain, the area of impact is bracing for the possibility of hail and locally damaging winds.

Looking at a few specific forecasts, ground zero of Kerrville, Texas, is bracing for thunderstorms during the evening hours on Saturday. Another round of storms could move in during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Highs will hover in the upper 80s and low 90s for the next few days with lows bottoming out in the low 70s after the sun goes down.

Abilene, Texas, is forecast to see the highest chance of storms on Saturday afternoon and evening. Meteorologists are warning that gusty winds and hail are possible in some of these storm cells. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph. You can expect a high that approaches the 90-degree mark with lows that land in the upper 60s.

On the northern fringe of the storm's impact zone, Oklahoma City will be under the gun for scattered storms throughout the day Saturday. The clouds will keep the mercury in the low 80s for a high, providing a bit of relief from the heat as of late. Another chance of rain will move into the capital city on Sunday night and into Monday morning.

The greatest concentration of rain and storms will not reach areas to the east until the end of the weekend. For instance, Little Rock is forecast to see an increasing chance of storm activity on Sunday morning. The largest metro area in Arkansas should prepare for another round of storms on Monday. Like most of the region, temperatures will reach the upper 80s and low 90s for the next few days.

We will continue to monitor the risk of flooding across the southern Plains in the days to come.

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