Forecasters Predict Tropics Primed to Explode in Weeks Ahead

The end of August and the start of September have been abnormally quiet for the tropical Atlantic. While two hurricanes were born in the Eastern Pacific this week, it has been eerily calm over in the Atlantic Ocean. However, forecasters are warning that a change is in the air for the back half of the month. Read on for more information about what the long-range forecast models are suggesting.

Surge of Activity in Store for the Tropical Atlantic in Coming Weeks

Meteorologists are predicting that the Atlantic will begin to see an uptick in activity later in the month. Much of the activity is forecast to roam the Gulf, close to the coastline of the U.S.

Both the Gulf and the Caribbean have been put on alert for increased storm activity as September progresses. The surge of tropical weather is expected, as September is typically the busiest month of the hurricane season for the Atlantic.

Atmospheric conditions are expected to provide the necessary ingredients for tropical weather development by the middle of September. In addition to the exceptionally warm ocean water, lesser amounts of Saharan dust and mitigating wind shear will work to promote the development of tropical events across the Atlantic and into the Gulf.

While the Atlantic as a whole has seen its fair share of tropical activity this season, the Gulf has remained nearly unscathed. The only named feature to churn through these waters this year was Tropical Storm Barry. This June storm had a short life span, resulting in little impact.

Although the lack of storms in the Gulf has been good news for vacationers, the quiet conditions have paved the way for the water to get increasingly warmer. This is because tropical storms and hurricanes generally churn up the waters from the depths of the ocean floor, bringing cooler water up to the surface and lowering the overall readings.

The sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf are currently hovering in the upper 80s to low 90s in some areas. The widely recognized threshold for tropical development is 80 degrees. The warm water now in place will not only support the formation of new storms, but it will also prime the basin for features to go through the process of rapid intensification.

Understanding the Dangers of Rapid Intensification